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Robinhood prediction markets is expanding plans to the UK and EU, but regulators must first decide whether products are futures, swaps or gambling. Robinhood is engaging the FCA while relying on Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated plumbing to settle dollar-denominated event contracts.
Robinhood seeks FCA guidance to classify and offer prediction markets in the UK and EU.
US activity: over 4 billion event contracts traded, with heavy Q3 volume, settled via Kalshi.
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Decentralized alternatives (e.g., Polymarket on Polygon) offer transparency but face liquidity and regulatory challenges.
Robinhood prediction markets: UK/EU rollout in discussion with FCA; learn how classification, settlement and consumer protections will shape expansion. Read the latest.
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Robinhood eyes UK and EU rollout of its booming prediction markets, but faces questions over classification.
Following the strong uptake of its US prediction markets, discount brokerage Robinhood is exploring ways to bring the offering overseas, with early plans to launch similar services in the United Kingdom and Europe.
The company introduced its Prediction Markets Hub earlier this year, a platform that lets users trade on the outcomes of real-world events, such as interest rate decisions or sports results. Now, Robinhood is in discussions with the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to determine how such products could be offered locally, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.
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However, one of the main challenges lies in regulatory classification. In the United States, prediction markets are treated as futures products, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In other jurisdictions, similar products may fall under gambling laws, raising questions about oversight.
“So the question would be where is swap oversight, let’s say in the UK? That’s a question that we’ve been asking the FCA, how do we work it?” JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures at Robinhood Markets, told Bloomberg.
Mackenzie added that the UK and Europe are among the regions showing the strongest demand for prediction market products.
The interest in expanding overseas is understandable. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev recently said on X that the platform has already seen more than 4 billion event contracts traded, with over half of that volume occurring in the third quarter alone.
While Robinhood’s product mimics the structure of decentralized prediction markets, it is built entirely on traditional financial rails, not blockchain. Event contracts are executed through Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange, and settled in US dollars.
Even so, Robinhood remains highly active in the crypto and blockchain sectors, offering digital asset trading and moving toward tokenized stock offerings.
Related: SEC weighs plan to allow blockchain-based stock trading amid crypto push: Report (plain text reference)
What is driving Robinhood’s push into UK and EU prediction markets?
Demand and regulatory clarity are driving Robinhood’s expansion plans. Strong US volumes (4+ billion contracts) and expressed interest from UK/EU customers have prompted engagement with the FCA to determine classification and compliance requirements.
How does regulatory classification differ between the US and the UK?
In the US, prediction markets are generally treated as futures and regulated by the CFTC. In the UK and EU, similar products could be classified as derivatives, swaps, or gambling, each carrying distinct licensing, disclosure, and consumer-protection obligations.
Robinhood’s approach relies on Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated execution in the US, but local market access will require FCA alignment on oversight and whether swap rules or gambling statutes apply.
How do decentralized prediction markets compare to Robinhood’s model?
Decentralized platforms use smart contracts on public blockchains to execute and settle event contracts. They prioritize transparency and permissionless access, but face uneven liquidity, higher volatility and regulatory uncertainty.
Polymarket (built on Polygon) reported multi-billion-dollar monthly volumes at peaks—notably around the US 2024 presidential election—showing that decentralized exchanges can attract significant activity. However, on-chain platforms lack the centralized regulatory backstops and fiat settlement rails that Robinhood/Kalshi provide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Robinhood’s prediction markets be regulated as futures in the UK?
Regulation will depend on FCA guidance. Robinhood is seeking clarity; products may be classed as derivatives, swaps or gambling, each with different oversight and licensing requirements.
How do decentralized prediction markets differ in transparency?
Decentralized markets use public blockchains and smart contracts, offering on-chain transparency and auditability. Centralized platforms provide fiat settlement and regulated execution but rely on off-chain infrastructure.
Key Takeaways
- Market demand: Strong US volumes and UK/EU interest are motivating Robinhood’s expansion plans.
- Regulatory uncertainty: Classification (futures, swaps or gambling) is the primary barrier to immediate rollout.
- Settlement and custody: Robinhood uses Kalshi and fiat settlement, contrasting with decentralized, on-chain competitors.
Conclusion
Robinhood is actively pursuing a UK and EU rollout for its prediction markets, but the outcome hinges on FCA classification and local regulatory requirements. As discussions progress, expect closer scrutiny of consumer protections, settlement mechanics and whether centralized models or decentralized alternatives become the preferred market structure. Watch for formal guidance and product updates.
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