TLDR
- SOL has rebounded 10.5% after testing $191, but still trails ETH and BNB over the past two weeks
- Declining network activity and fees raise concerns despite spot ETF approval expectations (deadline Oct. 10)
- Competitor networks like Hyperliquid, Aster, and edgeX are challenging Solana’s edge
- Proposed Firedancer upgrade could remove fixed compute limits and significantly increase throughput
- Validator income sustainability is a concern, with 76% coming from newly issued coins
Solana’s native token SOL has recently bounced back, climbing 10.5% after reaching a low of $191. Despite this recovery, the cryptocurrency still lags behind its competitors Ethereum (ETH) and Binance Coin (BNB) over the past two weeks, with SOL remaining 10% below its previous levels.
The token is currently trading around the $206 mark, with traders closely watching whether it can regain momentum and push toward the $250 level.
Market sentiment improved over the weekend following signals from US President Donald Trump about avoiding a government shutdown. However, Congress still needs to secure 60 votes for a temporary funding bill by Tuesday to prevent economic disruption.
Meanwhile, gold has reached an all-time high of $3,833, highlighting ongoing concerns about the US fiscal debt outlook. The widening gap between government revenues and expenditures is driving investors toward scarce assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Despite the broader crypto market posting gains, SOL has struggled to maintain the $212 level. A major factor in this underperformance is the declining activity across the Solana network.
Data from Nansen shows a 10% decrease in Solana transactions over the past seven days, while fees have dropped by nearly 50%. In contrast, competing networks have seen substantial increases, with BNB Chain fees jumping 56% and both Arbitrum and HyperEVM more than doubling their fee revenue.
Competitive Landscape Shifts
The rapid expansion of synthetic perpetual futures on platforms like Hyperliquid, Aster, and edgeX has also weighed on SOL sentiment. Solana once dominated decentralized exchange activity through platforms such as Meteora, Raydium, and Pump, which led many SOL holders to overestimate the network’s competitive advantage in terms of fees and user experience.
Hyperliquid has opted to launch its own chain to reduce fees and eliminate validators’ maximal extractable value (MEV). Similarly, Aster, backed by YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs) and currently integrated with BNB Chain, plans to introduce its own layer-1 network.
For SOL bulls, the strongest catalyst for reversing the token’s underperformance is the anticipated approval of standard exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The regulator faces a final deadline on October 10, and analysts assign odds of 95% or higher to an approval, raising hopes for substantial inflows during the first months of trading.
Technical Innovations on the Horizon
Jump Crypto’s Firedancer team has introduced proposal SIMD-0370, which could transform Solana’s capabilities. The proposal aims to remove the fixed compute unit (CU) block limit and instead allow validator performance to determine capacity.
Currently, Solana blocks operate under a fixed compute ceiling of 60M CUs, soon to increase to 100M under SIMD-0286. This cap forces faster validators to hold back, limiting the network by a number rather than its actual capability.
The proposed Alpenglow upgrade would allow validators to skip blocks they cannot process in time, reducing congestion and avoiding redundant gossiping. This creates a performance improvement cycle where block producers can pack more transactions to earn higher fees, while validators that skip blocks lose rewards, incentivizing hardware and code upgrades.
However, not everyone supports the change. Roger Wattenhoffer, head of research at Anza, has cautioned that removing the block limit could introduce new technical risks and push the network toward centralization, though he noted these issues could be addressed.
With Alpenglow targeting 100ms finality and Firedancer promising up to 1 million transactions per second, Solana could establish itself as the market’s fastest blockchain. Combined with its growing stablecoin market, which has expanded from $5 billion to $12 billion, Wall Street giants are taking notice.
— SolanaFloor (@SolanaFloor) September 27, 2025
SOL’s price action also depends on how investors view its native staking yield. Critics warn that Solana’s inflation poses a risk, given the network’s nearly 1,000 validators and their substantial operational costs.
According to analysis shared on social media, 76% of validator income on the Solana network comes from newly issued coins rather than MEV or priority fees. This raises questions about the sustainability of the staking reward rate in coming years, which could impact demand for a Solana ETF.
Traders should not assume a price decline based solely on weaker onchain activity. Inflows from companies accumulating SOL reserves and the potential approval of a spot ETF could set the stage for a rally toward $250.
Currently, SOL is hovering at the bottom of its ascending channel after rebounding from sub-$200 support and breaking out of its pullback channel. The $200 zone is acting as a key level, with buyers defending it. If this support holds, the price could move toward $230-$255 or even reach the $330-$350 zone with strong momentum.
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