Key Insights:
- The market participants are awaiting for crypto market rally in October after a volatile month.
- The crypto market recorded an uptick of 3.73% in September.
- The Fed signaled that further easing is likely by the end of the year.
The crypto market recorded an uptick of 3.73% in September. As crypto “Uptober” approaches, a month-long long linked with optimism and renewed momentum, investors see signs of a strong setup.
The final quarter of 2025 stands out, rooted in the convergence of healthy regulation, ETF approvals, institutional buying, potential rate cuts, the growing influence of stablecoins, and the maturity of custody structures.
Together, these forces could shape October and the rest of Q4 in meaningful ways.
Crypto Market Eyes Fed Rate Cut
On September 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve revised its policy stance and cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points, setting the target range at 4.00% to 4.25%.
In its September Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed signaled that further easing is likely by the end of the year.
Policymakers expect the federal funds rate to fall to roughly 3.50% to 3.75% by December, suggesting two additional quarter-point cuts before the end of the year.
Multinational financial services corp, Fidelity, reached a similar conclusion in its analysis of the projections.
The firm noted that most Fed participants anticipate three total cuts in 2025, aligning with the broader market’s expectations of a gradual but steady policy shift.
For investors, this marks a clear turn from restrictive policy toward a more neutral stance. That shift is already shaping expectations for credit spreads, equity valuations, and even crypto liquidity.
At the same time, U.S. regulators are moving in step toward a unified framework for digital assets. In September, the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission issued a joint statement, confirming that registered exchanges will be allowed to list spot crypto commodities.
Besides, on September 23, the CFTC announced a new program that will permit tokenized collateral in derivatives markets.
Adding to the momentum, US SEC Chair Paul Atkins pledged to roll out an “innovation exemption” for digital assets before the end of the year.
The regulators recently convened a roundtable to push forward harmonized rules for prediction markets, perpetual contracts, and margin trading. The discussion marked another step toward building consistent standards across the digital asset space.
In parallel, the Trump administration’s public crypto strategy added further weight by signaling support at the federal level with clearer oversight and a more structured framework for the industry.
Crypto ETF Updates In Focus
As regulations take center stage, crypto ETFs have arrived with their own playbook.
The SEC recently adopted a list of general listing standards that eliminate the need for individual 19b-4 filings for each token-based ETF. This change streamlines the process and clears a path for faster crypto ETF product launches.
Meanwhile, the SEC asked issuers on September 29, to withdraw earlier filings for Solana, XRP, Litecoin, Cardano, and Dogecoin ETFs. Under the new framework, these products are now automatically covered, making the previous filings unnecessary.
Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart pointed out on September 26 that issuers had already updated their Solana ETF prospectuses.
Just days later, on September 29, his colleague Eric Balchunas went further, saying the odds of approval for altcoin ETFs are now “ 100%.” He added that new products would appear at any moment.
But the regulatory backdrop stretches well beyond ETFs.
In Washington, the GENIUS Act has introduced a federal framework for payment stablecoins, giving the industry long-awaited clarity.
At the same time, the Treasury has opened a formal comment period, signaling that stablecoin oversight is moving from discussion into implementation.
Crypto Market Industry Leaders Lauds
Crypto market players like Coinbase and Circle have welcomed the new rules, viewing them as a pathway to integrate stablecoins more directly into payments and derivatives markets.
The shift signals a step toward making stablecoins a standard feature of financial infrastructure rather than a niche product.
Meanwhile, developments abroad are moving just as quickly.
In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England and the country’s largest lenders are testing a pilot program to tokenize customer deposits. This approach has been prioritized over launching bank-issued stablecoins.
Major banks, including NatWest, HSBC, and Lloyds are now experimenting with tokenized deposits for payments and settlements.
On the continent, European lenders are preparing a euro-denominated stablecoin, setting the stage for a regional alternative that could complement these efforts.
Crypto Uptober Brings All These Factors Together
The convergence of monetary easing, coordinated US regulation, ETF market access, and new stablecoin frameworks creates a positive alignment of macro and micro forces.
For investors, this moment carries weight. Portfolios can be shifted toward risk assets that typically gain from lower rates.
The expansion of crypto ETF offerings also removes the need for complex offshore structures, making access far more direct.
Meanwhile, tokenized collateral is opening the door to greater efficiency in derivatives markets, reducing friction in capital deployment.
Yet, caution is warranted. The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts hinge on the durability of the labor market, leaving policy adjustments subject to reversal if conditions change.
At the same time, regulatory clarity is not final. SEC and CFTC proposals remain in draft form, and their eventual shape could alter the investment landscape considerably.
The fourth quarter demands a clear and decisive plan. Equally important, regulatory clarity will shape decisions around custody, margining, and collateral. All these key crypto sectors now sit at the center of risk management.