A divergence between the XRP Fear & Greed Index and the XRP price today is fueling debate about whether the token may be approaching a cycle top.
Data highlighted in an X post shows that sentiment has fallen into “fear” territory even as the price of XRP continues to rise. This same pattern emerged in 2020–2021 before the last major market peak, raising questions about whether history could be repeating.
The XRP Fear & Greed Index is falling while the price climbs, echoing a divergence that signaled the previous bull cycle top. Source: @Steph_iscrypto via X
According to CFGI data, XRP entered “Daily Extreme Fear” on February 6, 2025, followed by “Daily Fear” on September 1, 2025. While these readings may look troubling, experts caution that fear and greed indexes are built on market psychology rather than fundamentals, limiting their predictive power.
Ripple’s SEC Case and Market Memory
The XRP SEC lawsuit, first filed in December 2020, added significant volatility to Ripple’s token during the last bull cycle. That case was resolved in 2025 with a $125 million settlement, removing a major cloud over Ripple and helping clarify XRP’s regulatory status. Analysts note that while the lawsuit contributed to the 2020–2021 market top, the same risk may not apply now, given the legal closure.
XRP was trading at around $2.91, up 4.11% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin
Still, regulatory dynamics remain a core driver of sentiment. Uncertainty has historically been one of the biggest catalysts for volatility in cryptocurrency XRP. With the Ripple case now resolved, the regulatory landscape has become clearer, reducing some of the risks seen in previous cycles. However, market psychology may continue to influence trading behavior, even in this more stable environment.
XRP ETF Optimism Builds
Adding to the mix, optimism over a potential XRP ETF approval is rising sharply. Data from Polymarket shows traders pricing in a 99% chance of approval by December 31, 2025. This surge in confidence follows the SEC’s withdrawal of its appeal against Ripple earlier in March, which further reduced regulatory ambiguity.
Market confidence in XRP ETF approval has surged to 99%. Source: @amonbuy via X
Cointelegraph estimates that approval could attract between $4–$8 billion in inflows, potentially transforming the Ripple XRP price trajectory. However, some analysts warn that investors should remain cautious of a “sell the news” reaction, as much of this optimism may already be reflected in the current XRP price of around $2.91.
Technical Outlook: XRP at a Crossroads
From a technical perspective, XRP price predictions remain mixed. The token has been consolidating within a descending triangle since July, with resistance capped near $2.96 and support sitting close to $2.70. Analysts highlight that a close above $3.00 could trigger a breakout toward $3.25–$3.42, while a drop below $2.75 could open the door to deeper losses near $2.50.
A TradingView post suggests XRP/USD is regaining momentum as the price rebounds from a key demand zone. Source: EtherNasyonaL on TradingView
Market sentiment around Ripple XRP news today remains divided. Analyst Hardy noted, “XRP is still in a solid bullish consolidation. As long as the price holds above $2.72–$2.75, the upside potential remains in play.” Another analyst, XForceGlobal, added that prolonged consolidation could build pressure for a stronger breakout, with longer-term targets as high as $20–$30 being discussed in bullish circles.
Seasonality and Historical Patterns
Historically, October has not been a strong month for XRP. Since 2013, the token has recorded negative returns in seven of the past 12 Octobers. However, Q4 has consistently been XRP’s best-performing quarter, averaging 51% gains. In 2024, XRP surged 240% in Q4 alone, highlighting the potential for sharp reversals in the final months of the year.
October is set to be historic for XRP as multiple spot ETF decisions from major issuers are scheduled between October 18 and 25. Source: @TheCryptoSquire via X
This seasonal pattern, coupled with ETF optimism and institutional demand, could set the stage for what some traders are calling “Uptober.” Whether or not XRP mirrors past cycles, the coming weeks may prove decisive in shaping the XRP forecast 2025.