$4K Ethereum at risk: Why ETH’s TVL collapse might not be the end

Key Takeaways

What’s happening with ETH liquidity?

Ethereum’s DeFi TVL is dropping and spot liquidity is thinning, signaling short-term risk-off pressure.

Are bulls giving up?

Staking flows and long-term holders are locking ETH, keeping conviction strong and providing a floor under price.

Ethereum’s [ETH] DeFi liquidity is seeing some big shifts.

Over the past week, stablecoins circulating on Ethereum dropped $3.76 billion from a $161 billion peak. That lines up with ETH taking a 9.77% hit over the week, showing classic risk-off behavior.

At the same time, ETH’s TVL slid nearly $10 billion, landing at $85 billion. In short, DeFi liquidity on Ethereum is pulling back sharply.

With ETH’s $4k support hanging by a thread, are investors starting to rotate out?

Ethereum’s liquidity drain amid market caution

Despite the broader risk-off mood, rotation into ETH isn’t showing up.

ETH/BTC price action backs this up. September flipped bearish after the pair topped out at 0.04 in August. Since then, it’s printed back-to-back red weeklies, setting two fresh lower lows, the latest at 0.036.

With that backdrop, Ethereum’s liquidity squeeze looks more like investors moving to safety, leaving ETH’s $4k support exposed to a deeper breakdown. Simply put, FUD is outweighing FOMO, keeping bid side thin. 

Source: DeFilLama

The falling TVL only reinforces this setup.

Nearly $10 billion has rotated out of Ethereum’s locked liquidity, dragging TVL back to early August levels. In short, ETH’s on-chain depth is thinning, spot bids are fading, and downside risk is stacking up. 

That said, TVL alone isn’t a confirmed bearish trigger. The real question is where is this liquidity headed. According to AMBCrypto, how those flows play out will likely set the tone for ETH’s Q4 moves.

ETH locked in for yield shows bulls aren’t backing down

A notable divergence is emerging on the Ethereum network. 

While TVL continues to slide, signaling thinning liquidity for spot buys and potential short-term pressure, Ethereum’s Total Staked Value (TVS) is sitting just 0.028% below its all-time high of $36.20 million.

In fact, over the past week alone, roughly 120k ETH have flowed into staking pools, highlighting that long-term holders are doubling down despite the risk-off vibe, locking ETH for yield and stacking staking rewards.

Source: CryptoQuant

In short, long-term conviction in ETH is holding strong.

Even with a 9.44% dip, investors are still taking profits selectively, and Ethereum’s NUPL remains green. In a risk-off market, this is a bullish signal. Traders aren’t capitulating, but are HODLing for potential upside.

Technically, that’s a classic liquidity divergence. The market’s showing risk-off caution in the short term, but long-term conviction remains firmly bullish, with staking flows providing a solid floor under ETH.