Over Half of Bull Market Top Indicators Have Reached 50%, Data Shows

As analysts and traders continue to debate whether or not this cycle’s top is in, a cluster of long-term market signals tracked by blockchain analytics platform Coinglass is steadily pushing toward levels that in past cycles have marked overheated conditions.

As of today, Sept. 29, 18 out of 30 indicators tracked on Coinglass’s Bull Market Peak Signals dashboard have made more than 50% progress toward their sell trigger, while six are already over 80% of the way there.

None of the signals have hit 100%, which would indicate a sell signal, per Coinglass. However, with over half already past the halfway point, they could hit critical levels all at once, potentially surprising the crypto community and triggering a new wave of FUD.

As Glassnode analysts noted in a Thursday research report, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing “signs of exhaustion,” following a brief rally after the September Federal Reserve meeting, adding that the short-term holder cost basis at $111,000 was the “key level to hold or risk deeper cooling.”

The analysts added that unless demand from institutions and holders aligns again, the risk of deeper cooling “remains high.” According to SoSoValue, last week’s spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced over $900 million in net outflows, marking the third-largest weekly outflow so far this year.

Will BTC Break New Highs This Year?

The dashboard brings together price-based metrics like the Pi Cycle Top and Golden Ratio Multiplier, on-chain profitability measures such as MVRV and Bitcoin net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), and supply dynamics including long-term holder balances and Bitcoin dominance.

For example, Bitcoin dominance has reached nearly 89% of its cycle top threshold, while long-term holder supply is 87% of the way toward its trigger. Meanwhile, the widely followed Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index sits at 75 out of a 90 top signal, indicating that it’s more than 83% complete.

The warning signs emerged just one month after Bitcoin hit $124,128 in August, a historic all-time high, raising debate over whether the market has already topped out this cycle.

A CoinGecko survey published earlier this month found that over half of surveyed investors don’t expect BTC to rise past $150,000 by year-end, while 13% think BTC has already peaked and won’t see a new all-time high until next year.