Will Dogecoin (DOGE) Price See 30% Rebound or Crash?

Dogecoin (DOGE) price has cooled off over the last two weeks after witnessing an energetic first half of September.

For perspective, DOGE has lost about 25% of its value since reaching its February highs near $0.30 on September 13.

That pullback has brought its price back to a well-watched confluence of support levels that have repeatedly sparked rebounds this cycle.

Does DOGE have fuel for a double-digit rebound, or are we staring at a deeper reset?

Defending This Level Can Unlock a 30% Dogecoin Rally

From a longer-term lens, Dogecoin price has been trending upward since June, advancing roughly 60% over the past three months.

In fact, the Dogecoin price has respected a rising trendline (white, dashed) that has served as a springboard for multiple rallies since April.

What’s worth noting is that rebounds from this trendline support have historically produced a rally of 30-40%.

DOGE price is approaching the trendline near $0.22 at the time of writing, but what’s even more striking is the confluence of multiple support levels in this area.

For instance, the $0.2-$0.22 price band has a crucial horizontal support level, as well as the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).

EMA is a moving average that gives more weight to recent candles, showing the market’s prevailing direction. In other words, holding above the 200-day EMA indicates that the broader uptrend remains intact.

All in all, if buyers defend $0.22 and reclaim momentum, a rebound into the $0.27–$0.29 range becomes very much plausible. This would unlock a 30% upside from the press time price.

But a decisive break below the $0.20-$0.22 band would provoke a near-term dip toward $0.18.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price RSI Shows Bullish Divergence Near Key Support

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a popular oscillator that measures market momentum, stood at 43 at the press time.

Readings below 50 indicate waning bullish influence, while readings near 30 would suggest oversold territory.

What’s interesting now is the emerging bullish divergence for Dogecoin price: while price has been drifting lower, the RSI has stopped making new lows and is curling gently higher.

For beginners, a bullish divergence occurs when momentum improves even as price weakens, often an early hint that sellers are running out of steam.

It’s not a guarantee, but when divergences develop at support (such as the $0.22 area and the 200-day EMA), the probability of a tradable rebound improves.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Key Level for Next Move

Analyst Ali Martinez flags $0.2 as Dogecoin’s most important support based on Realized Price Distribution.

This metric maps where coins last moved on-chain and, by extension, where large cohorts of holders are likely to have bought.

In his recent post, Martinez highlights a massive cluster of historical transactions around $0.20, implying many holders established positions there.

Earlier analyses have likewise noted heavy DOGE price activity at the $0.20 level, reinforcing the zone’s significance.

When price revisits such a high-ownership area, two things often happen.

• Stronger hands resist selling at a loss. If many buyers are anchored near $0.20, they’re less likely to panic-sell just below their entry.
• Demand tends to reappear. New participants waiting for “value” often step in at levels where prior buyers proved active.

Keeping this in mind, Dogecoin price is currently at a make-or-break level. If it holds the $0.20–$0.22 support band, a 30% rebound is on the table. However, a dip below this support could expose DOGE to a deeper correction in the short term.