Is the Current Crypto Slump a Bear Market or a Correction? Experts Weigh In

The total crypto market capitalization declined by 6.9% over the past week, according to TradingView data. Most major cryptocurrencies fell following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates last week.

Among the top 10 cryptos, Solana experienced the steepest drop, falling 20%. Bitcoin and Ethereum also slid significantly, dipping below key support levels of $110,000 and $4,000 respectively.

Warnings from market skeptics

Veteran crypto critic Peter Schiff highlighted silver’s nearly 3% gain amid Bitcoin’s plunge. 

Silver jumped almost 3% today, closing above $45, as Bitcoin tanked over 3.5%, breaking below $109,000. I always thought it would be gold that pricked the Bitcoin bubble. It looks like it may be silver.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) September 25, 2025

Schiff argued that Ethereum’s drop below $4,000 officially marks it in a bear market and predicted Bitcoin could follow suit soon.

Other analysts, like xTrends, pointed out that historically large declines often align with Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycles. 

“Every big bad bear market started  around the time FED started to cut rates,” the analyst said.

1-week chart of the S&P 500. Source: X

Technical indicators and alternative views

PlanC analyst pointed to Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $111,500 — a key metric indicating the dividing line between bull and bear markets. Bitcoin trading below this level signals bearish conditions unless a swift recovery occurs.

“During a bull market, the price should remain above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis for the majority of the time, with only brief dips below it followed by quick recoveries,” the analyst explained.

Bitcoin chart and short-term holders’ underlying value. Source: X

He added, “If the STH Cost Basis acts as consistent resistance—where the price drops below it and gets repeatedly rejected—that’s a hallmark of a bear market.”

Conversely, some experts argue the recent decline could be a “bear trap”—a temporary pullback before a rally. 

Trader NoName believes the market is mid-cycle, with signals pointing toward an upcoming final phase of growth and new highs.

What makes these cycles so similar?

❒ They all repeat the same structure:

– 9-12 month growth period
– mid-cycle correction that looks like the trend is over
– final pump leading to mass euphoria pic.twitter.com/Y3qTaGVevG

— NoName (@WhaleNoName) September 25, 2025

According to him, several signals typically indicate the approach of a market cycle peak. 

These include the MVRV-Z indicator moving into the 3 to 4 zone, a sharp decline in exchange liquidity as coins are transferred to cold wallets, significantly positive funding rates, and the Fear and Greed Index reaching the “Extreme Greed” level.

Joe Consorti added that Bitcoin is absorbing supply at a crucial psychological level, and with reduced selling from long-term holders plus strong institutional demand, a powerful breakout could be on the horizon.