Bitcoin Eyes $120K–$125K If PCE Inflation Report Comes In Soft

• Bitcoin holds $109K support ahead of U.S. PCE inflation report due September 26.
• Softer-than-expected PCE print could boost momentum toward $120K–$125K.
• Market bets on Fed easing after PCE; traders eye renewed upside for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin steadied near $109,000 early Friday as markets looked ahead to today’s PCE inflation data release at 8:30 a.m. ET, later today. 

The stage is set not for speculation of a first rate cut, but for confirmation of one the Fed already executed. The Federal Reserve trimmed the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points on September 17, moving its target range to 4.00%-4.25%

Weak labor data has added urgency. July nonfarm payrolls rose by only 73,000, well below consensus. Earlier months’ numbers were revised downward, raising concerns about deceleration in hiring.

In prior remarks, Powell flagged that risks to employment have become more symmetric, acknowledging that inflation and labor dynamics must both guide the Fed’s next steps.

For Bitcoin, therefore, today’s PCE reading could have a big impact, as a lower figure may boost expectations of easier policy, possibly fueling a rally. At the same time, a stronger print could reduce sentiment and weigh on prices.

Related: Does Strong GDP Matter if Fed Policy is King? Hayes’ Macro Take Revisited

Bitcoin Price Action: Testing Support at $109K

Ahead of the release, Bitcoin fell 2.16% over the past 24 hours to $109,542, according to CoinMarketCap. The asset touched $111,850 before reversing in late trading, with the decline pushing its market capitalization to $2.18 trillion. 

A spike in trading volume accompanied the pullback, with turnover rising nearly 43% to $73.74 billion, suggesting investors are actively repositioning around key support levels.

Chart data shows the leading cryptocurrency settling around $109,000. However, analysts point to that level as near-term support, with a recovery toward $111,000 required to re-establish bullish momentum.

Sentiment & Odds: Markets Eye Further Cuts

Prediction markets reflect cautious sentiment. On Myriad, 67% of traders expect a move toward $105,000 before any rebound, with fewer placing immediate odds on $125,000.

Jake Kennis (Nansen) noted that while the rate cut is done, today’s PCE print remains critical as it could influence the pace or scale of future easing. A benign number would reinforce confidence in further cuts; a hot print could sow doubt.

Related: Crypto Markets on Edge as Crucial US Inflation Report Drops Tonight