A Break Above $4,841 Targets $5,864, Below Risks $2,750

Key Points

• ETH must break $4,841 to target $5,864; failure risks drop to $2,750 support.
• RSI hits 14.84 on 4H chart, signaling rare oversold condition with rebound potential.
• $23B in crypto options expiry and shutdown fears increase short-term market pressure.

Ethereum is trading at $3,928.31, down 2.11% daily and 13.50% weekly, reflecting strong bearish pressure. This decline follows a sharp ETF outflow of $251.2 million, including $158.1 million from Fidelity.

Market conditions remain unstable, as Ethereum trades below the +1.0σ MVRV band at $4,841 and far under the +1.5σ level at $5,884. The realized price stands at $2,436.94, with deeper support at the −1.0σ band of $1,711.

Ethereum must reclaim $4,841 to break its downtrend and aim for $5,864, the next key target. However, failure to hold could push ETH toward the −0.5σ support level at $2,754.

The model’s mean sits at $3,797, and ETH trading above it suggests moderate strength despite the broader weakness. Still, downside risk persists if market conditions deteriorate further in the coming sessions.

RSI Collapse and Options Expiry Fuel Market Tension

Ethereum’s 4-hour RSI has dropped to 14.84, indicating extreme oversold conditions and heightened selling pressure. This marks only the 19th time in a decade that RSI has fallen below 15.

Such low RSI levels have historically led to short-term rebounds, though this is not guaranteed. Traders now await signs of a possible reversal or continued weakness.

Meanwhile, over $21 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired today, marking one of Q3 2025’s largest stress events. This quarterly options expiry injected significant volatility into markets as participants scrambled to adjust their positions.

Macro Risks and Leverage Add to Bearish Momentum

The threat of a U.S. government shutdown has increased to 67%, spooking investors across all risk assets. Historically, shutdowns have triggered notable market corrections.

Economic indicators also added pressure as Q2 GDP was revised to 3.8% against expectations of 3.3%, lowering hopes of rate cuts. This strengthens the dollar and weakens appetite for risk assets like crypto.

High leverage positions among retail traders have intensified the downturn, especially with altcoin open interest doubling Bitcoin’s. As cascading liquidations occur, selling accelerates across the board.

Market analysts suggest this may be a shakeout phase before a potential Q4 rally. Traders now closely watch the $4,841 resistance and the $2,750 support for the next major ETH move.