XRP Price Analysis: Analyst Sees Next Rally Aiming for $4 — Here’s What the Charts Signal

XRP is trading near $2.88 and sitting on a setup that traders are watching closely. Analysts think the next major move could reach $4 if buyers hold key levels. 

Prominent analyst CasiTrades posted on X(Formerly Twitter) that a “double bottom” near $2.70 still fits a bullish Wave 3 pattern, as long as XRP price stays above that zone.

XRP on-chain activity and network signals

Glassnode data show that network usage has stayed steady even while the market cooled. The number of XRP transfers moved between 800,000 and 1.15 million during the period, swinging sharply but without pushing XRP price higher. The price line drifted from above $3.1 to around $2.8-$2.9, pointing to controlled selling rather than panic.

XRP transaction fees followed a similar pattern. Fees went up from approximately 380 XRP to approximately 750 XRP, fell near 400, and then shot up again towards 750 XRP. Such spikes in on-chain activity did not produce sustained price growth.

XRP price kept easing lower, hinting that high network usage, likely from internal transfers or exchange operations, hasn’t yet turned into broad buying.

XRP active address data confirm a stable base of users. Counts ranged between 34,000 and 46,000 with recurring spikes over 40,000. These spikes were not matched with price spikes, proving that user engagement was still strong even as sentiment weakened.

Price flattened near $2.9-$3.0 and met resistance around $3.2–$3.3, levels that mirror the wider market’s support and supply zones.

XRP price trend and major supports

XRP price has been climbing in a broad uptrend since late 2024. The first big surge lifted price from under $1.00 to over $2.50, then it built a long base before breaking orange break of the structure zones early in 2025. 

After consolidating during the summer in the $2.00 to $2.50 range, XRP rallied once more to highs above $3.80. price then sloped lower in a weak pullback, producing lower highs while continuing with slightly higher lows along an orange rising trendline.

Strong support sits at $2.50-$2.60 where that trendline meets the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $2.53. Traders say a daily close below this shelf would weaken the medium-term bullish structure. 

If that floor fails, a bigger base near $1.80-$2.00 would be the next zone to watch. For shorter time frames, $2.70-$2.75 offers minor support where XRP price has paused several times.

XRP daily chart. Source: Tradingview

The main supply zone remains between $3.50 and $4.00, the same region that capped August and September highs. Inside it, $3.00-$3.20 is the first resistance after several failed rebounds in recent weeks. 

Fibonacci levels back this view: the 1.272 extension sits around $3.20, while the 1.618 and 3.618 extensions point to $4.00 and $4.40. Those higher marks match CasiTrades’ Wave 3 targets if buyers regain control.

The 200-day SMA keeps trending upwards, which is good for a long-term bullish configuration. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reading around 44, higher than sub-30 levels experienced in mid-September, as selling pressure has moderated but not changed direction.

On the 4-hour chart, sellers have repelled rallies since early September. XRP tried several pushes above $3.40-$3.50, but each failed quickly. 

XRP 4hr chart. Source: Tradingview

Those “fake moves,” labeled in yellow, left a downward-sloping orange trendline. A break of structure at $3.19 sent XRP price deeper, guided by Fibonacci extensions at 1.618 ($2.63) and 2.618 ($2.54). These match the red support box that absorbed the September 22 flush.

Key resistance now sits at $2.94-$3.10 where the 200-period SMA overlaps with the descending trendline. Higher resistance stretches from $3.28 to $3.50, a pocket of retracement levels and old supply. 

To flip momentum back toward the highs, analysts say XRP price needs a 4-hour close above $2.94 and a strong move through $3.10. That could open the way to $3.28 and $3.44. Failure to defend the red zone on a retest could expose $2.54 and even lower if sellers press harder.

XRP double bottom pattern and wave 3 outlook

CasiTrades’ X post points to a possible double bottom near $2.70. The analyst notes that XRP printed a long wick to that level at the end of its consolidation, a move that often clears stops before a trend shift. XRP price quickly reclaimed the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement at $2.79, and candle bodies have held that level since.

The XRP chart itself shows a wedge where a descending black trendline meets a rising base. A completed Wave (1) and corrective Wave (2) appear to set the stage for a Wave (3) push higher. 

🚨XRP’s Double Bottom: Setting Up For Wave 3 Impulse! 🚨$XRP experienced a highly volatile move RIGHT at the end of its consolidation, creating a massive wick down to a double bottom near $2.70. This type of volatility is expected at the end of a consolidation! The market is… pic.twitter.com/Rfb1J9W2ri

— CasiTrades 🔥 (@CasiTrades) September 23, 2025

CasiTrades is looking for another minor test of $2.79 along with a bullish divergence on the 4-hour RSI. Holding $2.79 and moving through $2.99-$3.00 would set up a run to $3.25 and higher Fibonacci levels at $4.00 and $4.40.

A close below $2.70 would cancel the Wave 2 count and point price toward deeper supports at $2.58 and $2.525. Until then, the stop-hunt wick, fast recovery, and rising RSI all match a classic bullish continuation pattern.

Outlook for XRP

XRP now trades near a key area around $2.88. The 200-day SMA at $2.53, the ascending trendline at $2.50-$2.60, and a cluster of Fibonacci levels mark a decision zone. On-chain data show steady activity and a loyal user base, but that hasn’t yet turned into strong price gains.

Analysts agree on the next levels to watch. According to CoinCodex’s XRP price prediction, a daily close above $3.20 could pave the way for XRP price to return to the $3.80-$4.00 range, while defending $2.79 on shorter charts supports the bullish Wave 3 setup. A drop under $2.50 would shift interest to the deeper $1.80-$2.00 area.

With XRP holding these key technical zones, the coming sessions will show whether buyers can turn strong network activity into the breakout that many traders are anticipating.