Bitcoin correction: BTC fell below $109,000 after long-term holders realized roughly 3.4 million BTC in cumulative profits and ETF inflows slowed, signaling potential cycle exhaustion and increasing the risk of a deeper short-term pullback for the market.
Long-term holders realized ~3.4M BTC in profits, matching prior cycle tops.
Price dipped to a four-week low near $108,700; downside risk to ~$107,500 remains.
On-chain metrics (SOPR, NUPL) and slower ETF inflows point to a potential cooling phase.
Bitcoin correction: BTC fell under $109,000 as long-term holders realized 3.4M BTC in profit; read analyst views and steps traders can take.
Bitcoin dropped to under $109,000 as long-term holders realized 3.4 million Bitcoin profits and ETF inflows slowed, signalling potential cycle exhaustion.
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Bitcoin could be headed for a deeper correction as cumulative realized long-term holder profit taking has now reached levels seen in previous market cycle tops, on-chain analysis shows.
Long-term holders realized roughly 3.4 million Bitcoin (BTC) in profit this cycle, and exchange-traded fund inflows have slowed, according to Glassnode — a combination the data firm says is consistent with market “exhaustion” following recent macro moves.
BTC slipped below a nearby support zone at ~ $112,000 and traded as low as $108,700 on Coinbase in late Thursday activity, per TradingView price feeds. Analysts warn a retest of $107,500 is possible if selling momentum resumes.
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The primary drivers are realized long-term holder profits and a slowdown in ETF inflows, which together weaken demand while increasing supply pressure. On-chain metrics and trading activity front-load the explanation: cumulative profit-taking has reached levels seen at prior cycle peaks, increasing the probability of a cooling phase.
Glassnode’s realized profit/loss ratio and the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) reveal elevated profit-taking and instances of holders selling at or near breakeven. SOPR is at ~1.01, indicating some sellers realize only minimal gains or losses — a historical sign of market stress. The Short-Term Holder NUPL is also approaching zero, which can precede forced selling by newer holders.
Short-term technicals show loss of momentum after a brief rebound, and stop-loss clusters sit near $107,500. If selling accelerates, cascade liquidations could push price toward those levels. Analysts, including Markus Thielen of 10x Research, note that many market participants are positioned for a Q4 rally — a mismatch that raises the chance of surprise downside instead.
Views vary: some strategists remain neutral until BTC reclaims $115,000, while others, including high-profile institutional proponents, expect a Q4 recovery once macro headwinds fade. These perspectives reflect differing time horizons and risk tolerances among large holders and institutions.
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