Shutdown Winners: Are There Any?

Government shutdowns have short- and long-term policy implications, and they cause some serious disruptions and some simply inconvenient ones. As policy insiders talk about who has the upper hand on this one, Americans can be forgiven for having a different view of this familiar drama. The duration of a shutdown matters, of course, as does its proximity to elections, but what another shutdown is likely to do is to cement already negative views of Congress and of government and political leadership in general.

Democrats have been getting a lot of advice from fellow partisans about how to handle this one, with what appears to be general agreement that they should focus on the Obamacare’s enhanced premium subsidies and reversing Medicaid cuts. There is concern among some moderate Republicans about this as well. In most polls I’ve seen over the years, the public trusts Democrats more than Republicans on health care.

The Democrat’s advantage on health care notwithstanding, the polls provide evidence that another shutdown won’t give either party an advantage. Approval of Congress is already low as it has been for a long time. In Gallup’s September poll, just 26% approved of the way Congress was handling its job. In another long-standing Gallup measure, 49% had very little confidence in the institution of Congress, and another 36% had some. Only 10% had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in this key institution.

Other polls provide a mixed picture of the current environment. When the Economist/YouGov asked in mid-September about the effectiveness of the leadership of both parties, 26% said leadership of the Democratic Party was effective. In a separate question, 52% gave that response about GOP leadership. Still, Democrats now lead Republicans solidly on the generic ballot question in the latest Economist/YouGov survey, 39% to 35%. Yet, in the previous week’s poll, 39% said they thought the Republicans would win control next November and 27% the Democrats.

Many Americans aren’t familiar with Congressional leaders and they give pollsters the “don’t know” or “haven’t heard enough to say” responses about them. They just know the institution isn’t working. Of those with opinions, the ratings of individual Democratic and Republican leaders on the Hill are not impressive, with less than three in ten in the latest Economist/You Gov poll rating Democrats Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries and Republican Mike Johnson favorably. John Thune is even less well known, and his favorability rating is lower. Standing up to President Trump might please the Democratic base, but it is unlikely to provide long-term national advantage.

But there is another polling indicator that tells us why a shutdown is unlikely to benefit either party. Gallup has tracked responses to a question on the country’s most important problem since the late 1930s. The organization asks people monthly to say in their own words what the most important problem is facing the nation and Gallup codes the responses. In Gallup’s September poll, 28% gave the “government/poor leadership” response, more than mentioned any economic response. Gallup’s eminent analyst Frank Newport analyzed responses to this question over time and noted that at the time of Watergate, 26% mentioned government, but after that concerns about it didn’t resonate very strongly until the 16-day shutdown October 2013 when a third volunteered that government was the problem. During the 35-day shutdown from December 2018 and January 2019, it rose to 35%. A Pew Research Center poll conducted during this shutdown found that “none of Washington’s political leaders receive[d] positive approval ratings for their handling of the government shutdown.” Newport notes there is a strong partisan tinge to the responses now, with Democrats more likely to express concern now that Republicans control the levers of government.

In a mid-September Morning Consult news release, 12% said they had recently seen, read or heard a lot about negotiations over government funding as Congress faces the September 30 deadline. More will tune in if it happens and lasts. Most Americans aren’t paying close attention in part because the issues are complex and shutdowns are an all too familiar drama for them. The House-passed GOP bill only takes the nation to November 21.

Americans want their government to do many things and polls show that people believe government can have a positive impact on people’s lives. They also tell pollsters government isn’t having that kind of impact now. Press coverage over who’s winning and who is losing is a staple of shutdowns, but for most Americans, their political leaders won’t come out ahead.