Cryptocurrency analysis firm CryptoQuant has published a remarkable report on the Bitcoin market.
According to the report, Bitcoin’s implied volatility has fallen to its lowest level since 2023. Analysts note that a similar period of silence signaled the start of a historic 325% rally in the past and suggest a similar scenario could be playing out now.
According to CryptoQuant’s on-chain data, the market picture reinforces the impression of “the calm before the storm”:
- Bitcoin Reserves on Exchanges Are Declining: The total Bitcoin balance held on exchanges is nearing multi-year lows. This suggests that selling pressure is easing in the market and that a supply squeeze may occur as demand increases.
- MVRV Ratio in Neutral Zone: Bitcoin’s Market Capitalization/Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is around 2.1. This suggests that investors are neither incurring significant losses nor in excessive profit positions. Therefore, there is no pressure for panic selling or hasty profit-taking.
- Funding Rates in Balance: Funding rates across major exchanges are positive but moderate, indicating a lack of overly leveraged long or short positions in derivatives markets and a dampening of volatility.
According to the CryptoQuant report, when these three signals are considered together, it appears that market supply is shrinking, investors are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and derivatives markets are calming. While historically, periods of such low volatility don’t last long, analysts indicate that Bitcoin is preparing for a new and strong price movement. However, whether this movement will be upward or downward remains uncertain.
*This is not investment advice.