ORLANDO, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 27: Jimmy Butler III #10, Draymond Green #23 and Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors react in the second half against the Orlando Magic at Kia Center on February 27, 2025 in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
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Ever since Stephen Curry burst onto the scene as a generational star, the Golden State Warriors have been the most successful organization in basketball – appearing in six NBA Finals and emerging victorious in four of them.
For the last couple of years, the clock seemed to be closing in on midnight. Last season, Golden State began the season with an uninspiring 21-22 record, before a midseason trade for Jimmy Butler pried open their championship window, and allowed them to stay out past curfew a little bit longer. Upon his arrival, the Warriors went 28-11 and looked like a formidable foe, until a tragic Stephen Curry hamstring injury caused them to fizzle out in the second round.
Now, with a full offseason of Butler under their belt and a couple of key additions, the Warriors look to make one last run before the end of the Curry era. But how realistic is that?
(Note: While none of the transactions are official, we are operating under the assumption that the Warriors are bringing Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton II back and signing Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton, and Seth Curry.)
2025-26 Golden State Warriors Strengths
After Butler came on board, he, Draymond Green, and the rest of the cast transformed into one of the best defenses in the NBA. In their last 39 games, they were first in the NBA in Defensive Rating (and that was without the help of opponent shooting luck).
On offense, they still employ their Curry/Draymond actions and all their movement-heavy set pieces, which make them a nightmare for defenses to keep up with. Plus, Butler is able to carry the torch for them in small doses when Curry is on the bench (not for whole games, though). They were ninth in Offensive Rating during that aforementioned second half stretch.
While no longer the ultra-valuable role player he was in his prime, 39-year-old Al Horford’s game has aged like fine wine. He’s still an agile defender (87th percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus, per Dunks & Threes), strong paint protector (77th percentile block rate), and credible spacer (72nd percentile 3-point volume). At the very least, he’s a better defensive version of what Quentin Post gave them last season.
Speaking of Post, the Warriors had a +7.2 net rating when he and Green shared the floor (per PBP Stats). Now, imagine what that number could be if they replace Post’s minutes with Horford. And besides, double big lineups are cool again!
I am also really fond of the Warriors’ decision to bring back Melton. The sample is insanely small, but his on/off splits last season in his six games with Golden State are ridiculous. When Melton was on the floor (119 non-garbage time minutes), the Warriors were a +12.1 per 100 possessions (per Cleaning the Glass).
The last two years have been a nightmare for him injury-wise. But when last seen fully healthy (during the 2022-23 season), Melton was one of the better defensive guards in the association (92nd percentile DEF EPM), and he’s always been a reliable 3-point shooter (career 36.9% from three).
De’Anthony Melton 2022-23 Player Card.
BBall Index.
They may not have the farm system of a team like, say, the Toronto Raptors, but Golden State does roster young guys who could take a leap for them next season. Post (25), Kuminga (23), Trayce Jackson-Davis (25), Moses Moody (23), and Brandin Podziemski (22) are all 25 years old or younger and could theoretically take strides next season that change the dynamics of the team.
My personal pick to do so is Podziemski. He’s got an incredible floor game, and he always seems to make the right play (on both sides of the ball). It is just about him becoming a more consistent shooter/finisher.
2025-26 Golden State Warriors Weaknesses
Outside of the Curry injury, what set the Warriors back – and nearly cost them their first round series against the Houston Rockets – was their lack of functional two-way size.
Other than their star trio (Curry, Butler, and Green), all of the Warriors’ players have flaws that make them vulnerable to high-level opponents. Podziemski is small (6’4) and can’t always be counted on to hit his shots (he shot 36.4% from the floor in the playoffs). Kuminga isn’t a good spacer or off-ball defender, and that says nothing about his tumultuous relationship with the team coaching staff/front office (more on that in a minute). Post is a weak defender at a position where defense matters most. Jackson-Davis’ lack of shooting makes him a poor fit alongside Draymond. Ditto with Kevon Looney. Buddy Hield can’t defend the point-of-attack well enough to spend large portions of time with Curry.
My original thought was that Moody would be able to be that guy for the Warriors. He touts a 7’1 wingspan and had the best two-way regular season of his career in 2024-25. But like Podziemski, the playoffs were not kind to Moody. He shot 35% from the floor and was omitted from the starting lineup after just two games.
Horford and Melton could be the solution to their problems, but for as much as I like them as depth signings, relying heavily on a player who will turn 40 during the 2026 Finals and another guy who has missed 120 games in the last two years isn’t exactly a safe bet.
This goes without saying, but I’m going to touch on it anyway: Kuminga is one of the most combustible dominoes in basketball. This offseason has been a contentious one between him and the Warriors, and there is no telling what that means for this season. Is he willing to buy into the role head coach Steve Kerr envisions for him? Can he be traded for someone who can help Golden State? Or will this fiasco derail the entire season?
The Bottom Line
If there is one thing I am confident in, it is that the Warriors will be a very good regular season defense. I also feel good saying that Curry, Butler, and all their wicked Xs and Os will be good enough to make them an above-average offense.
Historically, great defenses with above-average offenses can win 50+ games in the regular season. That will be good enough to get them into the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference, and based on their matchups, I could easily see them winning a playoff series or two.
That last portion is the key to this preview. As it stands, the Warriors are a good team, but a flawed one. They can be dangerous and beat some other good teams, but their lack of two-way size (and the advanced age of their best players) will hurt them against bigger, more athletic teams.
Until we see how much Horford/Payton have in the tank or how much guys like Podziemski/Moody grow, I’m going to consider them a matchup-based contender. That’s an honorable designation, but still a step below the league’s elite class.