Ethereum slides 20% – So why did whales just bet $1B on a rebound?

Key Takeaways

Why did Ethereum drop near $4,000?

ETF outflows reached $76 million, with BlackRock selling $15.1 million ETH and market makers repositioning aggressively on Binance.

What could drive ETH higher again?

A whale opened a $1 billion long, ETH volume hit $40.5 billion, and analysts flagged chop before a potential Q4 rally.

Ethereum [ETH] took the biggest hit in the recent market downturn and slipped closer to $4,000 after a 20% decline from its Q3 high of $4,900, with one week left in the quarter.

Institutions have continued to dump their Ethereum holdings, flashing leveraged longs. However, such massive dips before have triggered rallies, with analysts predicting more chop before a rally.

Institutions dump ETH 

On-chain data showed that Binance was among the big institutions dumping Ethereum.

According to data from Wimar.X, market makers such as Wintermute and Flow Traders were purchasing millions of ETH from Binance.

Additionally, BlackRock sold about $15.1 million in ETH. Meanwhile, total Ethereum ETF outflows surpassed $76 million in 24 hours, led by Fidelity and Bitwise with $55 million combined.

Source: Wimar/X

That alignment reflected heavy institutional repositioning. In past cycles, similar flush-outs marked reversal points as year-end approached.

Even so, what do analysts expect next?

Analyst predicts more chop

When writing, the price of Ethereum was approaching $4,000 from a high of $4,900. The reaction of ETH at the $4,000 level could determine its next trajectory.

A dip below could take the price to $3,800 or lower, while a hold could start the rally.

Analyst Michael van de Poppe predicted more sideways chop before any recovery, though he doubted ETH would fall as deep as $3,550.

Source: Michael van de Poppe

He noted that the 20-week MA was getting closer to the price. This indicated that compression was building up, a signal that price was preparing a move.

On top of that, he framed the 20% dip as a key accumulation zone—an idea whales seemed to back.

Why could an ETH rally be in the build-up?

In the last 24 hours, a whale opened a 237K ETH long worth roughly $1 billion on Kraken. Spot data reinforced bullish flows. Ethereum’s trading volume hit $40.5 billion, surpassing Bitcoin by $7 billion.

Source: Coinalyze

Lastly, the price action appeared to be repeating 2017 and 2020 patterns per CoinGlass data. In these years, Ethereum gained in the second, third, and fourth quarters.

With a similar pattern in play, ETH could extend its gains into the last quarter of the year.