Crypto Markets Recover Slightly as Signs Point to Late Cycle Phase

The crypto market is still shaky on Tuesday, Sept. 23, with total market capitalization at about $4 trillion, just 0.4% higher than yesterday.

Data from The Defiant’s price page shows Bitcoin (BTC) is holding just under $113,000 at $112,991, flat on the day, and now down about 2% on the week. Ethereum (ETH) is also flat around $4,186, though ETH’s weekly losses are a starker 5.8%.

Other large-cap crypto assets are mixed today. XRP is up slightly to $2.88, and BNB has gained a solid 2.5%, bouncing back from yesterday’s losses and regaining $1,000. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) slipped another 1% to $219, and TRON (TRX) is down 2%, showing that even though yesterday’s heavy selling has slowed, confidence hasn’t really come back.

Shawn Young, chief analyst of MEXC Research, told The Defiant that Monday’s sell-off reflects current skepticism among investors in terms of portfolio expansion “until there is further clarity on market direction and the macro environment’s influence on it.”

Young told The Defiant that markets are showing “signs of cycle exhaustion,” and broke down his technical view for BTC:

Young added that most tokens are now approaching “oversold conditions across multiple market indicators, and this could begin a recovery rally that could push BTC to retest the $117,000 mark.”

MEXC Research’s chief analyst also pointed out that the coming days will be important for understanding market direction “and deciding if this is this cycle’s final leverage flush before stability returns to the market or the start of a deeper macro-driven retracement, which could lead to the continuation of a historical underperformance by digital assets in September before Uptober comes in,” referring to Bitcoin’s historically strong performance in October.

Liquidations, ETFs, and Macro

Liquidations eased today following yesterday’s severe collapse, which saw the largest single-day liquidation of long positions this year so far. Over the past 24 hours, around $351 million in leveraged bets were wiped out, much less than Monday’s $1.7 billion, per data from Coinglass. Like yesterday, Ethereum led leveraged liquidations, but with a much smaller $55 million, followed by BTC at $44 million.

On the exchange-traded fund (ETF) side, the money flow turned negative this week. Data from SoSoValue shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $360 million in net outflows on Monday, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw nearly $76 million pulled out, which demonstrates a quick reversal from last week’s inflows that ended the week, and shows investors are turning cautious again.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Tuesday it now sees the world economy growing 3.2% this year, up from 2.9% in June, CNBC reported, adding that growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026 after growing 3.3% in 2024.

As the OECD explained, global growth “was more resilient than anticipated in the first half of 2025, especially in many emerging-market economies.”

Bitcoin Cycles

Analysts at Glassnode explained in a weekly digest published over the weekend that as derivatives activity continues to accelerate, the market is now “increasingly sensitive and reflexive in its structure.”

They added that from a cycle perspective, Bitcoin’s current price action “echoes prior patterns.” In both the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 cycles, all-time highs occurred “only 2–3 months beyond where we currently stand when measured from the cycle low,” the report noted.

“Alongside this, long-term holders have realized profit levels comparable to past euphoric phases, reinforcing the impression of a market late in its cycle,” the analysts added.