CLEVELAND, OHIO – JULY 06: Steven Kwan #38 of the Cleveland Guardians stretches a single as starting pitcher Tarik Skubal #29 of the Detroit Tigers tries to make the tag during the third inning at Progressive Field on July 06, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
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On July 8th, things could not be better in Detroit.
The Tigers had just finished up a victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. They were less than a week away from the All-Star Break, which would feature six representatives from the Tigers.
Above all else, the Tigers were controlling a 14-game lead in the division, after their 59-34 start to the regular season.
This was not only the best in the AL Central, but the best in all of baseball.
Winning the division seemed, at this point, like an afterthought, as the next-closest team to the Tigers was the 45-48 Kansas City Royals at the time.
However, that afterthought is now at the front of manager AJ Hinch’s mind, as they are at risk of losing that division lead with less than a week remaining in the regular season.
It is not the Royals who are attempting to catch them, but instead the Cleveland Guardians.
On that same date in early July, the Guardians trailed the Tigers by 15.5 games. After a 10-game losing streak, the Guardians had fallen to below .500 at 42-48.
Now, after going 42-24 since that date, Cleveland somehow has the chance to steal the division from Detroit.
So, what changed?
For Cleveland, the lack of changes to the roster was the biggest catalyst for their second-half success.
The Guardians had 18 games to prove to the front office that they could still compete this season. If they did not, then Cleveland could have seen more talent walk out the door than they did at the 2025 Trade Deadline.
In those 18 games, the Guardians went 12-6, proving that the roster th
CLEVELAND, OHIO – OCTOBER 05: José Ramírez #11 of the Cleveland Guardians reacts during the sixth inning against the Detroit Tigers in Game One of the Division Series at Progressive Field on October 05, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
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at reached the 2024 ALCS was still in that clubhouse.
Similar to last year’s team, the Guardians found their footing via starting pitching.
Since the All-Star Break, the Guardians have the best pitching staff in MLB, with a 3.38 ERA.
Led by Gavin Williams, who has become the ace of the Guardians staff, enters his last starts of the regular season with a 3.06 ERA and a league-leading two complete games and one complete game shutout.
Williams has led the way over this final stretch, with a 2.10 ERA in the past two months.
Outside of some outlier stats from Logan Allen and Slade Cecconi, they have also improved throughout the end of summer, both lowering their season ERAs below 4.20.
While the starting pitching has been progressively improved down the stretch, the bullpen has been the silver lining, even during the team’s slow start.
In the year, Cleveland has the fourth-best bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.52. Led by one of the game’s best closers in Emmanuel Clase, who has 24 saves on the season and a 3.23 ERA in 48 appearances.
Right behind him in the trust tree is Cade Smith, who still has a 3.06 ERA in 70.2 innings of work.
And the combination of Jakob Junis, Hunter Gaddis, Joey Cantillo, and Kolby Allard, all with a sub-3.50 ERA on the season, is a testament to their depth.
Offensively, the Guardians do not bring much to the table, with just two players having an OPS+ above league-average.
But the biggest component kept by the Guardians front office was Steven Kwan, who could have warranted a large return if he were dealt at the deadline.
Instead, Kwan’s consistency and ability to get on base ahead of Jose Ramirez have allowed the offense to do enough to get to this position.
Unfortunately for Detroit, its lack of offense in the second half is its reason for being in this position as well.
Heading into the break, the Tigers had the sixth-best offense in baseball, with a .749 OPS.
Despite the individual accolades still being there for the roster, with eight of their 10 everyday starting options still holding an OPS+ above 100 with six games remaining, as a team, the Tigers have fallen to the 20th-ranked offense in baseball.
HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 01: Tarik Skubal #29 of the Detroit Tigers reacts after recording a strikeout against the Houston Astros to end the fourth inning during Game One of the Wild Card Series at Minute Maid Park on October 01, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
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Tarik Skubal, the Tigers ace who is all but set to repeat as the American League Cy Young, has done a lot of the heavy lifting for the rest of his rotation. However, with Skubal having an injury scare two starts ago, we will see how healthy the southpaw is ahead of his most important start of the season tonight.
Outside of the Tigers needing to right the ship from their second-half struggles, they also need to change their fortunes against the Guardians for the season.
Cleveland has won six of the ten meetings in 2025 against Detroit, meaning that even if they only win one of the final three games, they would still have the tiebreaker for the division.
So, will we see the Tigers bend but not break in their pole-to-pole dominance of the division throne? Or can the Guardians complete one of the most improbable division comebacks in MLB history, erasing a deficit never seen in MLB history before?
The season all comes down to this final series, kicking off in Progressive Field, with both teams’ aces lined up for the series opener.