On-chain data supports bullish case

Bitcoin price is holding above $113,000 as whale accumulation and falling exchange reserves point to strength, even as technicals flash short-term caution.

Bitcoin was trading at $113,092 at press time, up 0.3% in the last 24 hours. The asset has ranged between $111,933 and $117,851 over the past week, slipping 2.3% in that span and 1.6% over the past 30 days.

Bitcoin (BTC) now sits 8.9% below its $124,128 all-time high set on Aug. 14. Trading activity has picked up notably, with $56.3 billion in 24-hour spot volume, a 45.8% rise from the previous day. 

On the derivatives side, CoinGlass data shows that open interest remained almost unchanged while futures volume rose 11% to $86 billion. This dynamic indicates rising short-term trading activity without major new positioning.

On-chain picture remains constructive

Three important indicators influencing the current pullback are highlighted in a Sept. 23 analysis by XWIN Research Japan, a contributor to CryptoQuant. 

First, the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value ratio has turned negative, meaning the average Bitcoin holder is now at a loss. Historically, such periods mark undervaluation zones and improve risk-adjusted entry points.

Second, whales continue to accumulate. Santiment data indicates that since Aug. 27, 56,372 BTC has been absorbed by wallets with balances holding between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC. This steady demand from large players helps stabilize price action despite retail volatility.

Third, exchange reserves have decreased by more than 31,000 BTC in the past month alone, continuing a long-term downward trend. Because there are fewer coins for sale, supply-side pressure is reducing, which creates a favorable environment for medium-term price movement.

Though sentiment remains cautious, undervaluation, accumulation, and a supply squeeze all indicate the start of a recovery phase.

Bitcoin price technical analysis

Bitcoin is consolidating following the recent decline from its peak in August, trading close to the middle of its Bollinger Band. Momentum indicators are mixed. With a relative strength index of 46, the market is neither overbought nor oversold.

The momentum oscillator points to a possible rebound, but the MACD has turned bearish and is flashing a sell signal. Short-term moving averages are bearish, with the majority of 10- to 50-day averages flashing sell signals. However, the 200-day EMA at $106,063 is still supportive.

Key support lies at $112,000, followed by the 200-day EMA near $106,000. On the upside, resistance is clustered around $115,500–$118,500, where multiple moving averages converge. A break above that range would open the path back toward $120,000.

Although the short-term outlook is cautious, on-chain accumulation and diminishing reserves indicate that the downside may be limited, and whales are subtly getting ready for the next leg higher.