Solana market cap hits $137B ATH despite price lag – Is SOL overvalued?

Key Takeaways

Why is Solana’s market cap hitting ATH despite price lagging?

Solana saw massive token unlocks this year, increasing circulating supply and driving market cap higher.

Does this mean SOL is overvalued?

Strong on-chain adoption, a bid-heavy orderbook, and absorbed supply-side risk create a structurally robust foundation for further upside.

Solana’s [SOL] market cap recently hit an all-time high of $137 billion, with the token reaching $250 for the first time since Q1. That means even with SOL 15% off its ATH, its supply mechanics are driving valuation higher.

Roughly 89% of Solana’s total supply (about 543 million SOL) is already liquid, leaving just 11% locked or reserved. Most importantly, the 11.16 million FTX-driven unlock earlier this year cleared a major overhang.

Simply put, the market has already absorbed most of Solana’s heavy supply-side risk, and the remaining unlocks average just 12.7k per month, creating a strong setup for SOL’s potential supply shock.

Source: Messari

In short, Solana’s current valuation reflects the impact of recent unlocks. 

With 543 million SOL now circulating, the token reclaimed $250, driving the market cap to a fresh all-time high of $137 billion. That’s about 2x the market cap during its mid-January $295 peak, signaling a stretched market.

Yet, Solana delivered a 55% Q3 ROI, cleared key resistances, and trades just 15% below its ATH.  With this liquidity surge, could the divergence signaling accelerating on-chain adoption be driving the rally?

Solana positioned for strong structural upside

On-chain, Solana’s staked value recently hit a record 410 million SOL. 

That means nearly 67% of total supply is locked in staking, creating a meaningful supply-side squeeze. Meanwhile, Solana’s annual inflation sits around 4.279% and is designed to gradually taper over time.

In other words, SOL’s on-chain adoption is strong while supply pressure eases, creating a bid-heavy orderbook profile that underpins price action. 

Against this backdrop, Solana’s Q3 gain highlights a clear supply shock.

Source: SolanaCompass

In essence, Solana is showing a structurally robust economic setup.

With most unlocks behind, staking at record highs, and inflation tapering, on-chain mechanics favor SOL. The market is efficiently digesting supply, keeping the orderbook bid-heavy and supporting price action.

In this context, Solana’s market cap isn’t simply a reflection of price. Instead, it reflects strong network fundamentals, creating a structurally sound foundation for future upside.