 
 
Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence platform Grok has projected that a U.S. spot XRP ETF could attract between $150 million and $20 billion in its debut phase.
The figure was revealed on X in a screenshot shared by crypto commentator Zach Rector on September 16, 2025, sparking industry-wide discussion about the scale of possible demand.
Grok’s XRP ETF Projection on X
The Grok output, published through Musk’s X-based AI, suggested that an XRP ETF filed under the Investment Company Act of 40 could see inflows ranging from $150 million on the low end to as much as $20 billion.
The post, widely circulated on September 16–17, 2025, represents one of the first publicized numerical estimates tied to an XRP ETF launch.
SEC Guidance Opens Path for Crypto ETFs
In July 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued updated guidance on disclosure standards for crypto-linked exchange-traded products.
 
This report states that market analysts viewed this as a significant step in clarifying how digital asset ETFs can meet regulatory requirements under the 40 Act. This guidance has been instrumental in driving the surge of new applications, including those associated with XRP.
In early September 2025, overall U.S. ETF flows totaled $21.3 billion. This suggests that even the upper bound of Grok’s estimate, $20 billion, while large, is not unprecedented compared to the scale of capital that can move into exchange-traded products.
Earlier crypto investment products also demonstrate the potential for rapid inflows. Grayscale’s trust conversions and prior Bitcoin ETF launches triggered multi-billion-dollar reallocations in short timeframes.
Grok’s $150M to $20B projection mirrors that spectrum, ranging from modest institutional participation to large-scale adoption upon launch. The data point gained traction precisely because it draws parallels to these earlier precedents.
The $150M–$20B range should be treated as an AI-generated estimate shared publicly rather than an official forecast from regulators or fund issuers.
Investors and market analysts should therefore view it as a directional indicator of potential demand, not as a commitment of capital.