ARLINGTON, TX – NOVEMBER 12: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys talks with CeeDee Lamb #88 after an NFL football game against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium on November 12, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
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It’s week three, and your fantasy team is starting to show itself. So whether you are rushing to the waiver wire or just sitting back and chillin, it’s a good thing to know what matchups are going to give you a high ceiling and what ones are looking for the floor to fall out. Again, it is only week three, the fantasy season has just begun, so even if you are rushing to the waiver wire, don’t panic.
Last week was a mixed bag of untimely injuries, the ole switcheroo and just some men underperforming. It happens. Let’s mitigate the possibility.
If the Thursday Night Showdown between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills has taught us anything, it is that it’s early. Counting out the Dolphins and Tyreek Hill, well, that was slightly premature. So, let’s carry on this crazy week and see what the best and worst plays by position are for week three.
Quarterback Best And Worst Matchup Week 3
Best Quarterback Matchup Week 3: Dak Prescott at Chicago, Chicago -1.5, 49.5 o/u
This isn’t only about Prescott attempting 52 passes last week and finishing with 361 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and only one interception. This has a lot to do with the Bears’ defense, which helped J.J. McCarthy win NFC Offensive Player of the Week in week one.
The Bears’ coverage defense is 32nd in passing yards per attempt (9.8) and passing touchdowns per game (3.5). In addition to the McCarthy fiasco, they just allowed Detroit Lions’ Jared Goff to pass for 334 yards and five touchdowns on just 28 passing attempts.
Worst Quarterback Matchup Week 3: Geno Smith at Washington, Washington -3.5, 47.5 o/u
Smith had one of the worst games of his career last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. Smith went 24-of-43 for 180 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions, making his touchdown-to-interception ratio for the past two weeks 1:4. The Chargers sacked him three times.
Now he will face the Commanders, who generate pressure on the quarterback at the second-highest rate.
Running Back Best And Worst Matchup Week 3
Best Running Back Matchup Week 3: Isiah Pacheco at New York Giants, Chiefs-6.5, 42.5 o/u
This is a hard sale because Pacheo hasn’t been playing particularly well. He does have a 53% snap share, a 37.6% route share, and has 15 of the 29 running back carries. Pacheco also has zero explosive runs and on nine touches is averaging 28.5 yards.
But if he is ever going to turn things around, this is the matchup to do it. The Giants have allowed the most rushing yards per game (177.5), the second most yards after contact, and the seventh highest explosive run rate.
Last week, Dallas Cowboys’ Javonte Williams collected 97 yards on 18 attempts and managed to get in a 30-yard run against them.
Worst Running Back Matchup Week 3: Quinshon Judkins v Green Bay Packers, Packers -7.5, 43.5 o/u
On the opposite end of the spectrum, there is rookie Judkins, who played his first NFL game last week. In that game, he had 26.4% snap share, 50% of the running back carries, and collected 71 total yards on 13 touches.
This week is his “welcome to the NFL rookie moment”, going against the Micah Parsons-led Green Bay Packers defense. The Packers defense has allowed the second fewest rushing yards per game (48.5 behind only the Browns), they have given up the fewest yards after contact, and no rusher has an explosive run against them.
Wide Receiver Best And Worst Matchup Week 3
Best Wide Receiver Matchup Week 3: D.K. Metcalf at New England, Steelers -1.5, 44.5 o/u
Last week, the Patriots soft-launched the resurgence of the Miami Dolphins’ receiving corps. Tyreek Hill collected 109 receiving yards. The week prior Las Vegas Raiders’ duo of Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers combined for 200 receiving yards against them.
Without cornerback Christian Gonzalez, the Patriots’ secondary is a sieve.
Enter 6’4”, 229-pound Metcalf, who clocked 4.33 in the 40-yard dash. The man is a physical freak who has a 34.4% first read share and is in dire need of a stat boost. The Patriots’ secondary has been providing that boost in the last two weeks.
Worst Wide Receiver Matchup Week 3: Chris Olave at Seattle, Seattle -7.5, 42.5 o/u
Olave has a 28.1% first read share and is second on the team with red zone targets (2). In two weeks, he has averaged 54 receiving yards. Olave also plays the majority of his 92.4% snap share on the perimeter.
The Seahawks’ defense has given up the second-fewest PPR points per target and the third-fewest receiving yards per game to the perimeter wide receivers.
Tight End Best and Worst Matchup Week 3
Best Tight End Matchup Week 3: Kyle Pitts at Carolina, Falcons -5.5, 44.5 o/u
Per fantasypros, the Panthers’ coverage is the perfect matchup for Pitts. The Panthers’ defense plays single high on 56.5% of their defensive snaps.
Against single high, Pitt has a 28.6% target share (⇡ 8.0%) and a 25% (⇡5.4%) first read share. And then, of course, there is the fact that in the past two weeks, the Panthers have given up the third most fantasy points (11.0) and the most yards per reception (87.5) to the tight end position.
Worst Tight End Matchup Week 3: Mark Andrews v Detroit, Ravens -5.5, 52.5 o/u
There is no Isaiah Likely to blame; Andrews has just not been productive. After two weeks, he has 2.9 fantasy points on four targets. He has an 8.9% target share, has run 39 routes, and has seven total receiving yards.
Now add in that the Lions’ defense has allowed the third-worst catch rate to tight ends (64.9%) and has held tight ends to the fewest fantasy points per game (8.9).