Benjamin Cowen warns Bitcoin could see a steep bear-market drop — potentially up to a 70% drawdown from its cycle peak. Investors should plan risk management now, monitor on-chain and price signals, and prepare to rebalance positions if BTC approaches cycle highs.
Bitcoin 70% drawdown warning — what it means for investors
Historical cycle drawdowns (≈94%, 87%, ~77%) suggest large peak-to-trough moves are possible.
Market signals to watch: BTC price action, ETH/BTC ratio, on-chain metrics, and macro liquidity.
Bitcoin 70% drawdown: Cowen warns of a possible steep correction—plan risk management and rebalancing now. Read expert steps to prepare.
Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen said such a steep drawdown isn’t guaranteed, but “history would at least caution us.”
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What is Benjamin Cowen’s prediction about a Bitcoin 70% drawdown?
Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin could drop as much as 70% from a yet-to-be-seen all-time high based on prior cycle patterns. He emphasised that a 70% drawdown “doesn’t have to happen,” but history of past cycles supports preparing for significant corrections.
How severe were prior Bitcoin cycle drawdowns?
Historical cycle peaks followed by major sell-offs recorded drawdowns of roughly 94%, 87%, and about 77% in previous cycles. These figures frame Cowen’s caution that steep corrections are plausible even after strong rallies.
| Cycle | Approx. Peak | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|
| Cycle 1 | Early peak | ~94% |
| Cycle 2 | Mid-cycle peak | ~87% |
| Cycle 3 | Most recent | ~77% |
Bitcoin is up 88.35% over the past 12 months. Source: CoinMarketCap
How would a 70% drawdown affect price projections like $250K BTC?
A 70% fall from a hypothetical $250,000 peak would reduce Bitcoin to roughly $75,000. Cowen says that if markets “start screaming higher” he will take profits into stablecoins and likely wait until mid‑2026 to re-enter, underscoring a defensive stance around potential cycle tops.
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Cowen expects Ether (ETH) to initially lag Bitcoin but ultimately outperform into the end of the market cycle. He projects short-term weakness for ETH, followed by relative strength—supported by recent gains in the ETH/BTC ratio (TradingView data).
Prepare by defining risk limits, using position sizing, and planning re-entry rules. Short, actionable steps help preserve capital and capture opportunities after large corrections.
Yes. Based on past cycle behavior and analyst commentary, a 70% drawdown is plausible but not guaranteed. Historical cycle corrections of 77%–94% inform this probability and advise conservative positioning.
Timing is uncertain. Analysts point to late-cycle rallies as potential peak windows; Cowen mentioned mid‑2026 as a re-entry horizon for him if a peak occurs sooner. Watch market breadth and macro liquidity for clearer signals.
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