price ready for a new bull run?

In recent days, some signals are emerging indicating the possibility that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could trigger a new bull run.

Although these are rather clear signals, they are still too weak to assert that the bull run is really about to start. However, historical precedents support this hypothesis. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price on the Rise

In the last 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has risen by 1.3%.

However, this is not the key signal, also because the current price level is essentially the same as on August 23, and it is only slightly higher than that of two days ago. 

The interesting thing, however, is the possible trend change. 

In fact, after mid-August, a correction had begun that continued until the beginning of September. 

That correction started from the all-time highs, so it was nothing to worry about. Suffice it to say that the minimum level reached at the beginning of the month is the same as the all-time high recorded at the end of 2024. 

Starting from September 2, a rise began which seemed to have halted on September 13, with a return above $116,000, and a subsequent very brief and minor correction to $114,000 that perhaps is not even correct to define as such. 

Between yesterday and today, this latest very small correction seems to have ended, with the return above $117,000. 

The good signals

But it doesn’t end here. 

In fact, a couple of signals are emerging that suggest today’s movement might also be set to last for a while. 

The first is the further decline in BTC selling pressure on crypto exchanges. This is a very limited decline, but it has brought the selling pressure to new all-time lows of the current cycle. 

With such low selling pressure, even lower than mid-August when the price recorded an all-time high above $124,000, even a slight increase in buying pressure would be enough to further raise the price. 

In addition to that, there is also a second signal that seems to go precisely in this direction. 

In fact, the Dollar Index has returned below the 97-point mark for the first time since the end of June. 

The weakness of the dollar

The fact is that the US dollar seems to have re-entered a downward trend after the summer break. 

To be honest, the downward trend started in January and has never completely stopped, but in July there was a rebound, and in August it moved sideways. 

Now, however, it has not only started to decline again, but it seems headed towards the lows of this period. 

The Dollar Index has been following a long-term upward trend that has been ongoing since 2008, and at this moment its lower line is positioned at approximately 96 points. 

If it were to break below this threshold, the upward trend of the last 17 years could come to an end, and this would be a somewhat historic event. 

It should not be forgotten that in the medium term the price of Bitcoin tends to be inversely correlated to the Dollar Index, therefore the decline of the dollar should be interpreted as a positive signal. 

Moreover, until yesterday the BTC price rally seemed to be somewhat hindered by the rally of gold and the US stock markets, whose rise was probably draining some capital from the crypto markets. However, this rise seemed to have stopped yesterday, although it is not yet clear whether it has actually ended or if it is just a temporary pause. 

Attention for today

Today, however, things could change. 

The markets are indeed in feverish anticipation of the Fed’s announcement regarding interest rates. 

The market is already pricing in a 25 basis point cut, which indeed seems more than likely, but the real issue might be another one at this moment. 

The point now is the upcoming cuts, particularly from now until the end of the year. 

The markets are pricing in a total cut of 75 basis points (that is, three cuts of 25) by the end of the year, including today’s, and 150 in total by the end of 2026 (that is, another three cuts of 25).

In the event that today it becomes clear and likely that the Fed might be forced to cut more, perhaps even by the end of 2025, the markets could react positively. 

They should quickly reprice the new scenario, and this should generate volatility. 

Although an increase in volatility is not guaranteed, many analysts consider it possible, but without knowing if it will have directionality, and if so, which one. 

In light of what will be said tonight, the trends could turn bullish or bearish, or be volatile but without any clear direction. 

In theory, even in light of what happened at the end of 2017, for Bitcoin this would be the right time to start a new end-of-year bullrun, but the Fed has the power to prevent this from happening, especially in the short term. It will be necessary to closely monitor the situation to understand if the good signals can be converted into reality, or if everything will be postponed.