BTC Trades 7% Above ST Cost Basis, Eyes $130K Target

Key Points

• Bitcoin holds a 7% premium above its short-term cost basis near $90K, signaling continued bullish momentum.
• BTC consolidates between $114.6K–$117.1K with rising sentiment (68.8%) and low trade volumes ahead of FOMC.
• Crypto treasury holdings doubled to $25B in Q3 2025, with Bitcoin remaining the dominant asset in institutional portfolios.
  

Bitcoin is trading at $108.9K, maintaining a 7% premium over its short-term cost basis near $90K. This reflects a steady bullish trend, even as momentum cools from early 2025’s overheated 20% premium highs.

Price Action Remains Constructive Amid Tight Range

BTC price is consolidating between $114.6K and $117.1K, with highs and lows gradually shifting higher. The price consistently holds near the upper band, signalling persistent buyer interest and limited downside testing.

Moreover, the median 24-hour level continues to trend upward, reinforcing the underlying strength in market structure. However, no clear breakout has occurred yet as traders await a macro trigger.

Trade volumes remain moderate, staying mostly under 30K BTC, which signals hesitation among participants. But the tight range and rising midpoints indicate a potential for breakout if broader market cues align.

Sentiment and Structure Support Further Upside

The Advanced Sentiment Index is at 68.8%, just below the High Bull Sentiment threshold of 70%. This shows that optimism currently outweighs fear, supporting bullish positioning in the market.

Since late August, sentiment has climbed from bearish levels around 20–30% to a strong regime above 60%. This shift has paralleled Bitcoin’s move from $108K to the current $115K–$117K range.

Given this trend, sentiment provides a favorable backdrop for further price appreciation. A dovish or neutral FOMC statement may serve as the breakout catalyst traders are anticipating.

Still, the premium remains an important risk marker, as past expansions beyond 17–20% have preceded pullbacks. Therefore, traders may stay cautious if premiums expand too quickly from current levels.

Crypto Treasuries Double as BTC Leads Institutional Allocation

In Q3 2025, crypto treasury holdings nearly doubled to $25B, up from $12B in Q2. Bitcoin remains the largest holding, while Ethereum also saw strong inflows pushing its allocation above $10B.

Other assets like SOL and BNB made smaller gains, showing a trend toward diversification. Yet, Bitcoin continues to anchor corporate crypto strategies due to its perceived stability and dominance.

This sharp increase in institutional exposure underpins broader market confidence. It also strengthens the case for Bitcoin’s continuation toward the $130K target if favorable conditions persist.