New York Yankees’ Anthony Volpe reacts after his bunt pops out during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers Tuesday, Sept. 9, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
It’s been a rough season for Yankees’ shortstop Anthony Volpe. He’s struggled to keep his average above .200. and his offensive struggles seem to have taken a toll on his usually reliable glovework. After basically being an ironman for his first two major league seasons, he is now ceding the occasional start at shortstop to utilityman Jose Caballero.
It simply wasn’t supposed to be this way for a player said to be the second coming of Derek Jeter. Now that’s not a fair label to slap on anyone, but the stakes are just higher in the Bronx.
Volpe was the Yanks’ 1st round draft pick in 2019 out of Delbarton School in New Jersey. He advanced quickly through the minor leagues shrugging off the 2020 minor league season that was lost to the COVID-19 pandemic. That lost year waylaid the careers of many minor leaguers.
Each season I prepare a list of top minor league position player prospects based on performance relative to league and level, adjusted for age. Volpe made my list in both 2021 and 2022, ranking #11 and #127. There is no positional adjustment in my ranking system – that #11 ranking is pretty rare for a shortstop, higher than Jeter ever got. He batted .294-.423-.604 at both A-ball levels that season, at the tender age of 20. 68 of his 121 hits went for extra bases. Pretty special stuff.
There were some yellow flags in his 2022 season, split between Double and Triple-A. He batted .251-.348-.472 overall, again with a very impressive extra base hit percentage, but his singles total dropped off significantly, and he appeared to be overly power-focused. He wasn’t quite an elite bat prospect anymore, but it was enough bat for the position, combined with a very strong glove, allowing him to remain a quite attractive prospect overall.
And quite honestly, that overt focus on hitting for distance remained as his MLB career got underway. In his rookie season he posted a 27.8% K rate, over a half standard deviation higher than league average. He cut his K rate pretty sharply to 22.6%, into the league average range, last season, but in both 2023-24 his uppercut stroke caused him to hit his grounders quite weakly. His fly ball and liner exit speeds were closer to league average, especially in 2023, but overall it was an ordinary offensive package. Mediocre to average K/BB profile, average to slightly below average contact authority, unexciting batted ball mix, especially in 2024, when his grounder rate spiked.
Volpe posted overall Adjusted Contact Scores of 89 and 79, and “Tru” Production+ levels of 77 and 75 in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The latter is my batted ball-based proxy for wRC+ – those marks fell short of his 84 and 86 marks in those categories in his first two seasons.
Which brings us to today. And this is where I actually have some good news for Yankee fans. He actually hasn’t gotten any worse with the bat this season, and there are actually some signs that he may have actually improved.
His fly ball/line drive ball-striking is clearly improved from last season, and his grounder rate has been cut by over 8% to 42.0%. His grounder exit speed is fractionally improved, but still well below average. He’s actually got an above average 116 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score, though the expansive middle third of the Yankee Stadium has limited him to a 96 unadjusted mark. He’s been ridiculously unlucky on the ground, hitting just .142 AVG-.170 SLG (48 Unadjusted vs. 91 Adjusted Contact Score) despite spraying the ball around pretty liberally.
Overall, his 105 Adjusted Contact Score is easily the best of his career. He “should be” hitting .230-.287-.408 this season, not great, but much better than his actual numbers. That’s good for a 91 “Tru”+, which would be a career best. Not Jeter, but better.
But guess what – he’s doing that with an extremely low 14.7% liner rate, almost two standard deviations below league average and way out of whack with his career norms. Liner rates are notoriously volatile, so it is reasonable to expect that Volpe’s current true-talent level is higher than the expected numbers listed above.
Still, Volpe should make changes that give him an even higher overall offensive ceiling, though he might cut into his homer total a bit. He should be less homer-focused and more gap-focused. He’ll still run into 15 homers per year – he’s a surprisingly strong kid – while adding 20-30 points of batting average. The K/BB profile would also get at least a subtle boost. Plus, I believe his 2025 defensive struggles are just a blip – he retains above average defensive tools.
So don’t be overly upset Yankee fans. Once you strip away random variation and compare batted ball profiles across his three seasons, Anthony Volpe is better now offensively than he ever has been, before taking any rebound in his liner rate into account. He’s getting stronger and hitting more deep fly balls than ever. With some minor tweaks, a little better luck and regained confidence in his glove, Volpe projects as an average bat with an above average glove at a premium position. That is one valuable asset.