DENVER, COLORADO – JANUARY 29: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks defends Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on January 29, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)
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Free agency isn’t fully extinct in the NBA, but it has at least become endangered. The league’s new collective bargaining agreement allows teams to offer larger extensions to their own players, which has resulted in fewer stars reaching free agency at all.
Paul George did sign with the Philadelphia 76ers last offseason fresh off an All-Star appearance, although the early returns on that haven’t been great. Prior to that, the last time an All-Star had changed hands in free agency was 2019, when Kawhi Leonard signed with the Los Angeles Clippers.
It’s premature to declare that free agency is about to make its triumphant return. The next month will determine whether restricted free agency makes a comeback in 2026 after the likes of Cam Thomas, Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey and Quentin Grimes got squeezed this summer. However, teams do seem to be quietly setting themselves up for a potentially explosive 2027 offseason.
As of now, Leonard, Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler are all set to become unrestricted free agents that summer. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokić, Donovan Mitchell, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving could join them by declining the player options in their respective contracts. Many of them will likely wind up signing extensions with their current teams, but other teams may be protective of their long-term salary-cap space until those players are officially off the market.
Which Title Hopefuls Could Go Shopping In 2027?
Several championship hopefuls have seemingly structured their contracts with the 2027 offseason in mind. For instance, all three of Curry, Butler and Draymond Green are all set to have their deals with the Golden State Warriors expire after the 2026-27 campaign.
That’s reportedly contributing to the Warriors’ ongoing standoff with Kuminga in restricted free agency.
ESPN’s Shams Charania and Anthony Slater reported that the Warriors have offered Kuminga two contractual frameworks—a two-year, $45 million deal with a second-year team option, or a three-year, $75.2 million deal with a third-year team option. Meanwhile, Kuminga’s agent pitched the Warriors on a three-year, $82 million with a third-year player option earlier this summer.
Charania and Slater reported the Warriors “have been hesitant to go that rich for that long for Kuminga, showing a concern about how the deal might age.” They specifically noted the Warriors “project to have clean books and flexibility in summer 2027,” which they seemingly don’t want Kuminga to cut into.
The Warriors aren’t the only title hopeful who might go big-game hunting in 2027, though. In fact, they’re not even the only one in California.
The Los Angeles Clippers handed out two-year deals with second-year team options to all three of Bogdan Bogdanović, Brook Lopez and Nic Batum this offseason. James Harden has a $42.3 million player option for the 2026-27 season, and Leonard is under guaranteed contract for two more years, provided NBA doesn’t void his contract if it finds the Clippers guilty of salary-cap circumvention. Either way, the Clippers have Ivica Zubac under contract for roughly $21.0 million in 2027-28 and almost no one else on their books.
The Los Angeles Lakers don’t have quite as much financial flexibility as their crosstown rivals after signing Luka Dončić to a three-year maximum extension this offseason, but they aren’t far off. LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent and Maxi Kleber are all under contract for only one more season, while Austin Reaves figures to become an unrestricted free agent next summer by declining his $14.9 million player option. They’re poised to overhaul Dončić’s entire supporting cast either next summer or by 2027 at the latest.
California’s nation-high state income tax could work against the Warriors, Clippers and Lakers in their 2027 free-agent pursuits, though. That’s because a few teams in states without a state income tax are also poised to go spending that summer.
If both Davis and Irving decline their respective player options, the Mavericks will have roughly $105 million in salary come off their books. They’ll still owe $15.2 million to 2025 No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg, $18.1 million to Daniel Gafford and a projected $21.4 million to P.J. Washington, but their salary commitments are otherwise fairly light. They should have enough cap space to hand out at least one max contract.
The Miami Heat would find themselves in a similar boat. Terry Rozier and Norman Powell are both on expiring contracts, while Andrew Wiggins could also become an unrestricted free agent next summer by declining his $30.2 million player option. If he picks that option up, both he and Tyler Herro will come off Miami’s books in 2027 instead. The Heat did sign Bam Adebayo to a five-year max extension that begins in 2026-27, but they otherwise have only a few inexpensive team options on young players in 2027-28.
The Milwaukee Bucks are a wild card here as well. If Antetokounmpo declines his $62.8 million player option to become an unrestricted free agent in 2027, the Bucks should have a ton of financial flexibility. Kyle Kuzma comes off their books that summer, while Bobby Portis Jr. has a $15.6 million player option that he might be inclined to decline if it seems as though Giannis is leaving. Myles Turner ($27.9 million) is the Bucks’ only player under guaranteed contract for 2027-28 at the moment.
Which Rebuilding Teams Could Be Ready To Spend By Then?
In a vacuum, free agents would likely prefer to team up with other stars or join rosters that appear ready to contend for the playoffs, if not a championship. However, a few rebuilding teams could be poised to splash around in the free-agent pool by 2027 as well.
The Chicago Bulls just signed Giddey to a four-year, $100 million contract, and they have Patrick Williams under contract for $18 million flat per season through at least 2027-28. Other than that, though, they only have team options on Tre Jones ($8 million) and Matas Buzelis ($7.6 million), along with Noa Essengue’s $6.0 million salary on their books for the 2027-28 campaign.
The Brooklyn Nets have Nic Claxton ($20.9 million), Terance Mann ($16.0 million) and their five (!) first-round picks from this year’s draft under contract for 2027-28, although it’s fair to wonder whether Claxton and Mann will still be in Brooklyn by 2027. The same goes for the Utah Jazz, who only have Lauri Markkanen ($49.8 million) and a handful of players on inexpensive rookie-scale deals signed through 2027-28.
The Washington Wizards have nearly $65 million coming off their books next summer between Khris Middleton and C.J. McCollum, although they’ve already proved receptive to taking on longer-term money for draft capital and/or prospects. Still, they’re currently poised to have plenty of spending power in 2027, as they largely have only players on rookie-scale deals signed through 2027-28.
The Charlotte Hornets are also poised to go shopping in 2027. They have LaMelo Ball on a max deal ($43.6 million), but all three of Miles Bridges, Josh Green and Grant Williams will come off their books after the 2026-27 campaign. Brandon Miller will be a restricted free agent that summer if they haven’t signed him to an extension by then, but Ball is their only player under guaranteed contract for 2027-28 at the moment.
The 2027 cap-space landscape will shift across the NBA as teams begin handing out extensions, making trades and signing free agents next summer. Nothing may ever rival the summer of 2016, when a one-time salary-cap spike caused several teams to throw money around recklessly. But depending on what happens between now and then, the 2027 offseason could be paradigm-shifting nevertheless.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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