Bitcoin may be heading into an era of scarcity not just because of halvings, but because of who is holding the coins.
A new Fidelity study suggests that by 2032, nearly half of the entire Bitcoin supply could be effectively locked away, setting the stage for sharper volatility when demand spikes.
The Rise of “Illiquid Bitcoin”
The term “illiquid” is being used to describe coins that rarely move—whether because they sit in the wallets of investors who haven’t touched them in seven years or inside corporate treasuries that buy and hold. According to Fidelity, these two groups already control more than six million BTC, around 28% of the ultimate 21 million cap. If trends persist, their stash could grow to 8.3 million by the end of the next decade.
Companies Join Long-Term Holders
Public companies have become an increasingly important force in this trend. More than 100 listed firms now hold a combined 969,000 BTC, equal to 4.6% of all coins in existence. Their behavior has been remarkably consistent—only once, in 2022, did this group record net selling. Alongside them are “ancient wallets,” a cohort that has never reduced its balances since 2016.
Scarcity vs. Selling Pressure
While reduced liquidity is generally seen as bullish, Fidelity warns that concentration also brings risks. At today’s prices, these two groups together control more than $600 billion in Bitcoin. If they sell even a fraction, it can shake markets. Indeed, whale addresses dumped $12.7 billion worth of BTC in the last month alone—the heaviest liquidation since mid-2022—sending prices down about 2% despite overall optimism.
A Decade Defined by Hoarding?
If Fidelity’s projections hold, Bitcoin in 2032 could be marked by an odd dynamic: dwindling supply on exchanges, yet extreme sensitivity to whale activity. For investors, the question isn’t just how much Bitcoin exists, but who is willing to part with it.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/nearly-half-of-all-bitcoin-could-be-locked-away-by-2032-says-fidelity/