Citigroup Predicts $4,300 ETH by Year‑End in Bearish Base Case

Key Notes

• Citigroup is speculating that the ETH price could drop further to around $4,300.
• This forecast for year-end comes despite the recent move from around $4,700 to $4,500.
• Analysts from Citigroup noted that much of Ethereum’s recent growth comes from Layer-2s.
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The recent slight drop in the price of Ethereum

ETH
$4 513



24h volatility:
0.1%


Market cap:
$544.29 B



Vol. 24h:
$25.72 B

appears to be fuelling pessimism from several entities, including Citigroup. The financial institution is projecting that the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap will drop further to around $4,300 by the end of 2025.

Ethereum price moves to around $4,500

According to CoinMarketCap data, the ETH price is currently trading at $4,515.24, following a 1.74% decline over the last 24 hours. This comes after Ethereum had secured a high of $4,700 a few days ago. Notably, Citigroup analysts tagged network activity as the key driver of the coin’s value.

At the same time, these analysts have attributed more of the growth to Layer-2s, “with only 30% passing through to Ethereum’s base Layer, leaving prices above model estimates,” the analysts pointed out. The overvaluation could be due to strong inflows and the excitement around stablecoins and tokenization.

Citigroup forecasts ETH to fall to $4,300 by year-end (vs. current $4,515), with a bull case of $6,400 and bear case of $2,200. Analysts say most recent growth comes from Layer-2s, with only 30% passing through to Ethereum’s base Layer, leaving prices above model estimates.…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) September 16, 2025

Citigroup said the price could even drop further to around $2,200, more than a 100% dip from the current price of Ethereum. However, the firm also acknowledges the possibility of a bull run that could push the ETH price as high as $6,400. The drop from over $4,700 to $4,500 is likely due to selling pressure, coming amid strong profit booking for the altcoin.

Coinspeaker reported on how September has been a weak month for Ethereum over time, even though it started on a high note this time around.

Unfortunately, technical charts and on-chain data indicate that historical risks are lurking in corners. Still, there are certain analysts who see $4,800-$4,880 as the key resistance zone for Ethereum’s next upward move. This is only possible if the coin holds still above $4,500.

This resonates with the insights offered by popular trader Ted, who cautioned that the failure of ETH to hold $4,500 could lead to the retesting of the $4,000–$4,100 range.

$ETH has reclaimed the $4,500 level now.

The next resistance zone for Ethereum is around $4,700 before a new ATH.

In case ETH doesn’t hold the $4,500 level, there’s a chance of $4,000-$4,100 level retest. pic.twitter.com/Icbxivjv3W

— Ted (@TedPillows) September 12, 2025

What next for ethereum?

Nami, a renowned crypto analyst, noted that a meaningful breakout could be triggered if ETH closes above $4,880.

This could potentially be the catalyst for fresh momentum and even a short squeeze ahead. In the past, that level has served as strong resistance, capping previous rallies. Also, there is a key role for Ethereum treasury firms to play.

Institutional demand will go a long way in seeing that the ETH price hits a major recovery. While many firms are still waiting to see how crypto investment works out for their counterparts, others have taken massive bets on the digital asset. BitMine Immersion Technologies, which is recognized as the largest corporate holder of ETH, recently acquired $200 million worth of the coin.

At the time, Ethereum price was pegged around $4,440, capping BitMine’s purchase at 46,255 coins. Currently, this company alone boasts of owning over 2.1 million ETH, which is equivalent to more than $9 billion.

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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.

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Benjamin Godfrey is a blockchain enthusiast and journalist who relishes writing about the real life applications of blockchain technology and innovations to drive general acceptance and worldwide integration of the emerging technology. His desire to educate people about cryptocurrencies inspires his contributions to renowned blockchain media and sites.

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