Why Spot and Perps Both Look Weak on Binance

Ethereum’s trading activity on Binance has entered a period of relative calm throughout September, as a slowdown gripped the market.

Unlike earlier months, when trading was defined by sharp imbalances between spot and perpetual volumes, this time the market exhibited neutrality.

Neutral but Nervous

In its latest analysis, CryptoQuant reported that the Z-Score index hovered between 0.0 and -1.0, a zone slightly tilted toward spot market dominance, which indicated that perpetual contracts have steadily lost ground. This decline in perpetual activity reflected a reduction in leveraged speculation, which can be attributed to traders stepping back from risk or a market shift toward more organic buy and sell orders.

However, while this transition away from perpetuals may indicate healthier market behavior, it also points to fading enthusiasm from speculators, who previously drove Ethereum’s rallies with leverage.

At the same time, the spot market failed to compensate for this decline. Spot volume consistently stayed below the 500,000-1 million range, a level which is significantly weaker than the activity peaks seen in June and July, and reflected limited investor participation.

These factors depict a market characterized less by strong conviction and more by hesitation. Prices managed to hold an upward trajectory but lacked strong support from either speculative or long-term buying pressure, which has left Ethereum in what can be described as a semi-bullish range as it continues to fluctuate mildly without breaking sharply upward or downward.

While the absence of extreme imbalances may prevent abrupt corrections, the lack of strong drivers from both spot and perpetual sides is indicative of the possibility of short-term stagnation, as investors await clearer signals before committing to the next major trend.

$5K Key to Escape Sideways Drift Into December

Arthur Azizov, Founder and Investor at B2 Ventures, believes Ethereum’s near-term trajectory hinges on claiming the crucial psychological and technical marker – the $5,000 level. In a statement to CryptoPotato, Azizov said that a decisive breakout above this threshold with steady momentum could ignite a strong rally, which could essentially drive ETH toward the $5,800-$6,000 range before year-end.

On the other hand, if the price remains stuck, the crypto asset risks drifting sideways into December. He explained

“If, however, ETH keeps consolidating in the $4,400-$4,800 range, the market will likely move sideways into December, with only short bursts of activity. Conversely, the break below $4,400 would open the way toward $3,800-$4,100 before long-term buyers enter back. So, my base case is: a gradual climb, but it will take a clean break of $5,000 to confirm the rally’s strength.”