Bitcoin’s smartest holders aren’t selling – What happens if $116.5K cracks?

Key Takeaways

Can Bitcoin turn its stalled momentum around on the 15th of September?

Yes, the bullish composite signal reflected BTC’s upward momentum.

Should long-term holders be concerned about weakness?

No, the drop in profit-taking intensity over the months reflected market confidence.

Bitcoin [BTC] saw its momentum stalled over the weekend, but saw renewed conviction in the early hours of trading on the 15th of September.

The asset was about to challenge the $116.6 local high that it made on the 12th of September, and a move beyond this level would be a strong sign of short-term bullishness.

Earlier, AMBCrypto noted that the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit was at 92%. This reflected a bullish market phase but also showed a profit-taking threat.

Recent price swings were driven mainly by retail traders. By contrast, though, whales were not yet driving the market — and that explained the lack of a strong long-term trend since mid-July.

That left the pullback looking more like a pause than a reversal.

Profit-taking intensity falls

Source: Darkfost

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), analyst Darkfost observed that as Bitcoin prices climbed higher, profit-taking activity grew less intense.

Realized Profit peaked at 23,000 BTC in July, when BTC traded near $123.2k.

Previous Bitcoin peaks were accompanied by higher profit-taking of 48k BTC and 39k BTC in March 2024 and January 2025, respectively.

By contrast, this pattern showed sell pressure fading as the cycle advanced, a bullish sign for long-term holders.

Donchian channel signals the next BTC move

Source: Axel Adler Jr Insights

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr demonstrated, using the Bitcoin Structure Shift Composite Signal, that the structure is still bullish.

Using the 21-day Donchian channel, he marked resistance at $116.4k and support at $107.5k.

BTC pressed the channel’s upper boundary, while the +0.6 composite signal indicated strong buyer momentum.

This meant that a breakout and an upward move were likely, but there was a chance of a short-term reversal to $113.9k for Bitcoin.

A bullish confirmation would require BTC to break $116.5k and hold above it.