Recent macro releases — a moderate CPI and PPI print alongside a noteworthy uptick in initial jobless claims — have strengthened market pricing for a potential 25 basis point reduction in the Fed funds rate at the September meeting. Concurrently, the U.S. consumer confidence index hit a fresh low since May while long‑term inflation expectations inched higher, prompting investors to recalibrate short‑term rate expectations without introducing unfounded forecasts.
With the Fed policy decision imminent, a 25bp move alone is unlikely to spark major volatility; attention will center on Fed Chair Powell and the Summary of Economic Projections, particularly the new dot plot. Key upcoming event times (Beijing): Wednesday 21:45 Bank of Canada decision; Thursday 02:00 Fed FOMC decision and SEP, 02:30 Powell press conference; Thursday 19:00 Bank of England decision; Friday TBD Bank of Japan decision and 14:30 BOJ Governor Kuroda press conference.
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