Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price trades within $110,000-$116,000 range with three key supply clusters determining BTC action.
- Top buyers with a $113,800 cost basis need a price reclaim of above $114,000 to return to a profit.
- ETF flows dropped to 500 BTC per day, far below the earlier cycle intensity that had supported previous rallies.
Bitcoin price faces a critical juncture as on-chain analysis revealed the necessity of reclaiming $114,000 to attract fresh institutional liquidity and break free from its established consolidation range.
A Sept. 11 report by Glassnode noted that market momentum steadily faded following the mid-August all-time high.
The fading activity pulled BTC price below recent top-buyers’ cost basis and back into the $110,000-$116,000 “air gap” zone.
BTC price fluctuated within this range as supply redistributed, creating uncertainty about whether the consolidation represented healthy accumulation or preparation for deeper contraction.
Three Supply Clusters Define Bitcoin Price Trading Range
Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution analysis mapped three distinct investor cohorts shaping current price action.
Top-buyers from the past three months maintained a cost basis near $113,800, while dip-buyers clustered around $112,800. Short-term holders from the previous six months anchored near $108,300.
These levels defined the trading range parameters. For Bitcoin price, reclaiming $113,800 would return top-buyers to profit and potentially fuel bullish continuation.
On the contrary, a BTC price breakdown below $108,300 risked tipping short-term holders back into losses, potentially triggering renewed selling pressure toward the next major supply cluster at $93,000.
The bounce from $108,000, which occurred as September started, demonstrated clear buy pressure on-chain through a “buy-the-dip” structure that helped stabilize the market.
However, sustained movement above $114,000 proved necessary to restore confidence and encourage new institutional inflows.
Profit-Taking Creates Headwinds for Bitcoin Price
The report stressed contrasting behaviors among different holder cohorts during Bitcoin price rebound from $108,000 to $114,000.
While dip-buyers provided crucial support, selling pressure emerged primarily from seasoned short-term holders.
The three-to-six-month cohort realized approximately $189 million per day in profits, accounting for roughly 79% of all short-term holder profit-taking.
This suggests that investors who purchased during the February-May dips used the recent bounce to exit profitably, creating notable resistance.
Simultaneously, recent top Bitcoin buyers weighed on the market by realizing losses during the same rebound period.
The up-to-three-month cohort realized losses reaching $152 million daily, mirroring earlier stress periods from April 2024 and January 2025 when peak-buyers capitulated similarly.
Weakening US Spot BTC ETF Flows Reduce External Demand
Beyond on-chain dynamics, external demand through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) showed concerning deterioration.
US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows dropped sharply since early August, hovering near 500 BTC daily compared to the inflow intensity that supported earlier rallies.
The waning ETF flows represented a significant reduction from the institutional buying that characterized the cycle’s earlier phases.
Given ETFs’ pivotal role in fueling previous upside moves, their slowdown added fragility to the current market structure and reduced available liquidity absorption capacity.
Net Realized Profit as a share of market cap provided insight into liquidity strength. The 90-day simple moving average peaked at 0.065% during August rallies before trending lower.
While weaker than peak levels, current readings remained elevated. It suggests that inflows continued providing support as long as the Bitcoin price held above $108,000.
Derivatives Markets Gain Importance
With on-chain liquidity softening and Bitcoin ETF demand fading, derivatives markets assumed greater importance in price formation.
Volume Delta Bias measurements showed Bitcoin price recovery during the rebound from $108,000. It signals seller exhaustion across major venues, including Binance and Bybit.
Futures positioning appeared balanced rather than overheated. Three-month annualized futures basis remained below 10% despite higher prices, reflecting steady leverage demand without extremes that typically preceded liquidation cascades.
Perpetual futures volume remained muted, consistent with post-euphoric conditions.
Options markets demonstrated record open interest levels, reflecting growing institutional importance.
Many institutions preferred options for risk management through protective puts, covered calls, or defined-risk structures rather than direct spot exposure through ETFs.
Bitcoin Price: Critical Threshold for Market Direction
The report concluded that Bitcoin price ability to reclaim and hold above $114,000 would prove critical in restoring confidence and attracting fresh institutional flows.
As of press time, BTC price traded at $115,076.30 after reclaiming the $114,000 level on Sept. 11.
This level represents the approximate cost basis of recent top-buyers whose return to profitability could trigger renewed buying momentum.
However, failure to hold above $114,000 risks renewed stress for short-term holders. Notably, in the case of Bitcoin price downturn, $108,000 serves as initial support before a potential decline toward $93,000.
The market structure suggested that derivatives support was holding the foundation together, while broader spot demand required strengthening to fuel sustained rallies.
Meanwhile, current conditions reflect a delicate balance between sell-side pressure and weakening inflows.
Notably, profit-taking from seasoned holders combined with loss realization by recent buyers limited upward momentum. Having said that, the $110,000-$116,000 range has become a critical zone for Bitcoin price now.
Meanwhile, BTC stands at a crossroads where derivatives activity helps absorb selling pressure, but fundamental spot demand needs to strengthen significantly.
The $114,000 level represents not just technical resistance but a psychological threshold, where institutional confidence could either return or further deteriorate based on price action.