Key Insights:
- XRP price prediction trends show a nine-month triangle cap near $3 after a long consolidation.
- Futures open interest rose to about $7.9B, according to CoinGlass data.
- BBVA integrated Ripple Custody, adding an institutional backdrop to the setup.
On Thursday, XRP price traded near a major technical ceiling after months of compression. Derivatives positioning increased while BBVA added Ripple Custody, creating a clear backdrop for a potential range escape.
Could a decisive close above the trendline unlock higher levels next?
XRP price prediction: price tests a 9-month ceiling
Recent XRP price prediction chart on 12-hour time frames showed a descending triangle capping advances since late July. That structure combined falling trendline resistance with horizontal support clustered in the upper-$2 zone.
Traders watched the upper boundary near $3 because the pattern concentrated supply there. A clean break often signals that sellers lost control of the range.
Analyst Ali Martinez mapped a breakout objective near $3.60. He also highlighted Fibonacci checkpoints around $3.10 and $3.40 that could interrupt a trend before continuation. Fibonacci levels often mark zones where traders reassess momentum.
Price action stayed tight into the level. Intraday moves fluctuated around the $3 mark while bids repeatedly appeared near $2.90. That behavior indicated that dip buyers defended a familiar area aligned with several moving averages.
The XRP price was around $3.00 at the time of writing. A slip back under the round number could expose $2.75, where prior reactions created a shelf. A deeper loss through $2.65 would undercut the pattern and reduce the odds of immediate continuation.
Martinez’s $3.60 objective aligned with earlier swing reactions on the way down. Markets often revisit former breakdown areas after periods of balance. That path still required acceptance above the triangle cap and evidence that buyers could hold progress on retests.
Liquidity looked adequate around the range. Tight rotations near key levels usually reflect two-sided flow as market makers balance inventory while directional traders wait for confirmation. That blend reinforced why a closing signal mattered more than a fleeting wick.
Derivatives positioning and XRP price context
Futures activity increased as the compression matured. CoinGlass data showed open interest near $7.9 Billion, up from levels under $2 Billion earlier this year. Rising open interest indicates more capital committed to directional or hedging positions.
More open interest does not decide direction. It only shows that traders positioned for movement after a long base. The prior consolidation spanned about nine months, which often precedes stronger breakouts when a trend finally resolves.
Casi Trades described $3.00 as a pivot area after the latest tests. She pointed to Fibonacci extensions from the larger range that reached toward $4.50. Her roadmap also included a potential mid-move retest near $3.66 once momentum built.
Funding, liquidation density, and basis can accelerate moves when positioning skews one way. Traders usually monitor those readings alongside price structure to gauge whether a breakout has participation or relies on thin liquidity. In this case, the size of open interest suggested that participation would likely be present if a move started.
The triangle framework helps define risk and validation. A sustained push and hold above the down-trend line would mark acceptance. Failure at the line, followed by a close back inside the pattern, would warn that supply still dominated the range.
Institutional news added another layer. BBVA integrated Ripple Custody into its crypto service suite. That step broadened custody options and strengthened the infrastructure narrative around XRP. Traders often treat such rollouts as context rather than immediate catalysts, but the direction remains supportive for long-term adoption.
What could drive XRP price confirmation next
Traders looked for objective signals rather than guesses. A decisive 12-hour or daily close above the triangle cap would mark initial confirmation. Holding that break on a retest would strengthen the case for continuation toward $3.10 and $3.40, where Fibonacci checkpoints could slow progress.
Momentum tools can help filter the move. If a breakout occurs with expanding volume and improving breadth across large-cap tokens, trend confirmation improves. If volume fades or the move depends on thin books, the probability of a failed break increases.
Invalidation remained clear. A loss of the $3 pivot that then converts into resistance would shift the focus back to $2.75. Acceptance below $2.65 would negate the bullish setup from the triangle and return the range to balance.
Derivatives would likely influence the path. Rising open interest alongside a break often unleashes stops and entries that add fuel. If the market instead rejects the level, the same positioning can accelerate a move back into the range as traders unwind.
The BBVA–Ripple Custody integration supported the broader ecosystem. That backdrop may improve confidence in holding XRP through institutional channels. However, price still needed technical validation before traders could argue for measured targets.
In short, the roadmap remained straightforward. Break and hold above the cap, then treat $3.10 and $3.40 as checkpoints on the way to $3.60. Fail at the cap, and the market likely revisits $2.75, with $2.65 as the structural line in the sand.