Bitcoin exchange volume is 10x more than ETF flows! – Why it matters

Key Takeaways

Centralized exchanges dominate Bitcoin with $15.8 billion daily volume versus $1.7 billion in spot ETFs. Meanwhile, rising NVT and a weaker Stock-to-Flow model highlight correction risks despite strong exchange flows.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] trading structure reveals a stark imbalance, with centralized exchanges recording daily volumes of $15.8 billion compared to just $1.7 billion from spot ETFs. 

The nearly 10-to-1 ratio underlines the dominance of exchange-driven flows in shaping short-term market direction, even as ETFs gradually increase their influence. 

Despite contributing nearly 10% of overall activity, ETFs remain secondary to the more aggressive trading volumes seen on centralized platforms. 

This divide emphasizes how sudden inflows or outflows on exchanges continue to dictate volatility.

Retail Futures activity stays muted

Despite ongoing monitoring of retail participation in Bitcoin Futures, the data suggests only limited involvement from smaller traders. 

Fewer retail participants reduce speculative volatility, lowering the chances of sudden surges or panic-driven selloffs that often amplify price swings. 

Instead, larger institutional and professional traders continue to dominate activity, channeling liquidity into more calculated positions. 

However, this concentration means that sudden institutional repositioning could still create substantial price shocks. 

With muted retail activity, the market currently depends less on speculative frenzy and more on measured moves shaped by broader capital flows and strategic positioning.

Source: CryptoQuant

NVT ratio climbs higher, flashing overvaluation risks 

The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has risen 10.53% to 28, at press time, suggesting potential overvaluation relative to Bitcoin’s transferred volume. 

Historically, elevated NVT readings have often preceded corrections, as they indicate the market cap may be outpacing actual on-chain utility. 

While not a guaranteed predictor of downturns, a high NVT typically reflects a cautious environment where prices appear stretched relative to underlying fundamentals.

That said, strong institutional inflows can still support short-term rallies despite these warning signs.

Currently, the rising NVT raises concerns that upside momentum may be limited and the risk of a pullback is increasing.

Source: CryptoQuant

Stock-to-Flow weakness undermines Bitcoin’s scarcity-based model

Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio has dropped by 40% to 1.27 million, at press time, undermining the long-standing scarcity model often cited by bulls. 

This sharp decline weakens the narrative that limited supply alone can sustain higher valuations, as real market conditions diverge from theoretical scarcity expectations. 

The drop reflects growing doubts about the reliability of S2F as a forecasting tool. This is particularly in the face of changing macroeconomic factors and evolving market structures. 

However, the decline does not completely erase scarcity dynamics, but it suggests that price growth may rely more heavily on demand-side drivers, such as exchange activity and institutional inflows.

Source: CryptoQuant

Is Bitcoin headed for a rally or a correction?

Bitcoin’s signals remain mixed, with exchange flows fueling volatility while ETFs add stability. Retail activity stays low, institutions dominate, and rising NVT highlights overvaluation. 

Alongside a weakening Stock-to-Flow model, these factors suggest Bitcoin could still rally on exchange-driven momentum, but risks of a correction remain firmly in play.