Gold has reached a new all-time high of about $3,675. For years, gold’s rise often signaled strength for Bitcoin too. Traders believed Bitcoin followed gold with a delay of around 200 days.
That pattern is now broken. The gold–Bitcoin correlation has snapped, and Bitcoin is not moving higher.
This break matters because it comes as the U.S. economy shows signs that more liquidity may enter markets soon.
But instead of flowing into Bitcoin, the weak setup for Bitcoin might be pushing money toward altcoins.
With the altcoin season index at near 71, close to the 75 trigger, momentum is clearly shifting.
Gold’s Record High Breaks the Old Gold-Bitcoin Correlation
The idea of gold and Bitcoin moving together is not new. Both have been called “stores of value” because they are seen as protection against inflation and weak currencies.
Many traders expected Bitcoin to follow gold’s path, just later.
Historical data even showed that Bitcoin often followed gold with about a 200-day lag.
But today the numbers tell a different story. According to Glassnode, the 30-day correlation between gold and Bitcoin is –0.53.
This means that instead of moving together, they are moving apart. Gold is rising strongly, while Bitcoin is falling or staying flat.
Over longer time frames, the correlation is still slightly positive, but in the short term, they are not moving in tandem.
Bitcoin is not showing the strength many expected after gold’s new high. Instead of absorbing new flows, it looks stuck.
Momentum has weakened, and traders betting with futures are adding risk without strong price movement to back it up.
And even though the Futures-led volatility often leads to altcoins correcting, things might be a bit different this time.
This is why the old “gold up, Bitcoin up” story is failing. And that failure sets up the conditions for the next move.
Bitcoin Weakness Meets a Macroeconomic Setup for Funds
Normally, Bitcoin benefits first when more liquidity enters the system. That liquidity often comes from changes in U.S. economic policy. Right now, the backdrop is turning in that direction.
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks inflation at the producer level, fell to 2.6%, below expectations of 3.3%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, dropped to 2.8%, again lower than forecasts.
More clarity on this comes in a few hours when the much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is released.
At the same time, a government review showed the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs than first reported. This was the biggest revision in history.
Together, weaker jobs and softer inflation increase the chances of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Rate cuts make borrowing cheaper and usually push more liquidity into risk markets.
But here is the problem: Bitcoin might not be positioned to capture that money flow.
Futures open interest is rising while price stays flat, which often signals stress. On-chain data shows short-term holders are near breakeven, meaning they could sell under pressure.
This mix of weak price action and stressed traders shows Bitcoin is struggling. So while gold benefits from its safe-haven role and liquidity is set to grow, Bitcoin is failing to take advantage. That gap is where altcoins come in.
Altcoin Season Builds As Liquidity Moves Away From Bitcoin
With Bitcoin weak and gold already high, the next destination for money flow is altcoins. Altcoin season is when most altcoins outperform Bitcoin.
Analysts track this using the altcoin season index. The threshold is 75, and the index is now close to 71, very close to that mark.
Market activity supports this shift. Social and trading data show that coins like Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), ApeCoin (APE), Linea, and Bake are leading discussions.
Trading volume is also flowing into these names. Platforms like Santiment confirm that these altcoin market are gaining attention while Bitcoin struggles.
Even analysts warn that altcoin open interest is climbing, which can increase volatility.
But the bigger point remains: liquidity is moving into altcoins as the gold-Bitcoin correlation turns negative.. Traders are rotating out of Bitcoin, looking for higher returns elsewhere.