$4.2B in BTC & ETH Options Expire Tomorrow, Volatility Ahead

Key Points

• $850M in ETH options expire with max pain set at $4,400.
• $3.36B in BTC options face expiry, with $113K as the max pain price.
• CryptoQuant signals bearish BTC momentum, while altcoins show early signs of recovery.

The Ethereum options market will see $850 million in contracts expire on September 12, 2025, with notable positioning. The max pain price is set at $4,400, which may influence near-term price action as expiry nears.

Total open interest stands at 191,805 contracts, split between 94,861 calls and 96,944 puts, reflecting a balanced Put/Call Ratio of 1.02. The highest concentration of puts sits between $4,000 and $4,200, while strong call interest emerges from $4,400 to $5,200.

Call buyers appear focused on $4,600 and $5,200 strikes, suggesting bullish bets beyond the max pain zone. However, the max pain dynamic often leads prices to converge around the level that causes the most options to expire worthless.

This large expiry coincides with broader market movements, and historical patterns show Ethereum tends to move toward max pain during expiries. Traders may therefore expect short-term price swings as hedging and unwinding activities intensify near the $4,400 level.

Bitcoin Expiry and Bearish Signals Add to Uncertainty

Alongside ETH, $3.36 billion in BTC options will also expire tomorrow, bringing total expiries to over $4.2 billion in notional value. The max pain price for Bitcoin is at $113,000, which may attract price gravity during settlement.

Despite BTC trading above $110,000, bearish sentiment is building based on CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, with 8 out of 10 signals flashing red. Indicators like MVRV Z-score, P&L Index, Network Activity, and Inter-Exchange Flow point to weakening momentum.

This suggests Bitcoin may enter a consolidation or corrective phase as traders take profit and liquidity thins. However, technical support remains intact, offering limited near-term downside unless bearish triggers escalate.

Meanwhile, the Altcoin Market Cap vs. BTC ratio shows a potential shift as a weekly bullish divergence forms around the 0.014 BTC level. If momentum holds, capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins could follow, setting the stage for broader market movement.