STH MVRV Flashes First Signals as BTC Nears Break-Even Levels

Key Points

• BTC trades above $112K with daily gain of 0.67%
• Binance stablecoin reserves reach record $39B
• STH MVRV at 1.03 signals fragile positioning

Bitcoin short-term holders remain near break-even levels as realized price fluctuates between $108,000 and $109,000. This range reflects an average unrealized profit of about 3%, leaving short-term holders in a fragile position.

The short-term holder MVRV stands at 1.03, confirming that traders hold limited margins before potential losses occur. Historically, such conditions often lead to realized losses, which intensify price corrections in ongoing market cycles.

Market Reacts Ahead of Key Macroeconomic Data

Bitcoin is trading at $112,280, marking a daily gain of 0.67% or $742. This recovery keeps the asset above the $112,000 level, suggesting renewed strength despite a month-long corrective phase.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures advanced ahead of upcoming PPI and Core PPI releases. The S&P 500 E-mini futures gained 0.35% to 6,544.75, while Nasdaq 100 micro futures added 0.33% to 23,952.50.

The U.S. Dollar Index remains stable at 97.777, showing a 0.03% increase. Crude oil futures also climbed 0.72% to $63.20, reflecting cautious optimism across risk assets ahead of inflation data.

Liquidity Flows Surge as Binance Stablecoin Reserves Hit Record

Traders are also preparing for the upcoming FOMC meeting, where expectations now show a 100% probability of a rate cut. This anticipation influences both liquidity positioning and investor sentiment across the cryptocurrency market.

On September 8, Binance recorded its highest net stablecoin inflow of 2025, with more than $6.2 billion entering the exchange. These inflows partly reflect platform needs but also show investors moving funds to prepare for market opportunities.

As a result, Binance’s total stablecoin reserves have reached nearly $39 billion, setting a new all-time high. The growth in these reserves has historically moved in tandem with Bitcoin’s price action, suggesting close correlation between liquidity flows and market trends.