Why Ethereum’s price surge could signal a fresh ETH rally

Key takeaways

Ethereum is showing strength, outpacing Bitcoin in short and mid-term momentum. With structural shifts post-Merge, ETH could be entering a fresh bullish phase as it eyes a breakout above $4.4K.

Ethereum [ETH] appears poised for a breakout, signaling a potential shift in market momentum.

While Bitcoin [BTC] remains stable, it’s beginning to show signs of exhaustion. In contrast, ETH is gaining traction across multiple timeframes.

With the Merge reshaping its supply dynamics, the market could be easing into this new phase of strength.

Ethereum vs Bitcoin: Momentum tells two stories

Recent data showed a clear divergence between ETH and BTC.

Since 2024, Bitcoin’s price has remained high, but its momentum has steadily weakened; short-term buying pressure isn’t matching longer-term demand.

Source: Alphractal

Ethereum, by contrast, has broken out of a long period of weakness. Over the past few months, its momentum has surged, indicating the start of a fresh strength cycle.

Source: Alphractal

Positive values on the indicator point to alignment across timeframes, and right now ETH is showing it more clearly than BTC.

Ethereum’s new era

While momentum shows ETH gaining strength against BTC, another major shift has been structural.

Before the Merge, Ethereum’s price moved closely with mining difficulty; spikes in difficulty meant more miners, more security, and often higher prices.

Source: CryptoQuant

Since Ethereum’s transition to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) in 2022, mining has ceased entirely and network difficulty has dropped to zero. 

This shift eliminated miner-driven sell pressure and introduced new deflationary dynamics: staking reduces the circulating supply, while EIP-1559 continues to burn transaction fees, adding scarcity.

With ETH now trading above $4,300, the next major challenge is whether it can break through its previous all-time high of $4,800.

Signs of a rebound

At press time, ETH traded at around $4,380 after gaining nearly 1.7% on the day.

The chart shows ETH holding steady above $4.3K, with recent candles pointing to a possible shift in momentum.

RSI showed neutral-to-slightly bullish sentiment, while MACD lines remained in bearish territory but showed early signs of convergence.

Source: TradingView

While ETH has not yet confirmed a strong breakout, it may be in the early stages of recovery.

A push above $4.4K could strengthen confidence, while failure to hold above $4.3K might cause selling pressure.