Critical Technical and On-Chain Support

Key Points

• Bitcoin trades at $112K, holding within a rising wedge pattern.
• Whale realized price near $95K–100K acts as critical support.
• Mid-size wallets are stacking while large whales reduce holdings.

Bitcoin trades at $112,310 as of September 8, 2025, consolidating inside a long-term rising wedge formation. Key support lies near $90,000–95,000, while resistance sits between $115,000 and $120,000.

The weekly chart highlights several prior retests of the lower wedge trendline, underscoring its importance for mid-term stability. CryptoQuant’s analyst CryptoOnchain warned: “A decisive loss of this dual support would act as an extremely powerful sell signal.”

Momentum indicators confirm weakening strength, with the RSI trending lower since mid-2023 and currently below 60. The MACD histogram also shows negative divergence, with falling peaks despite Bitcoin’s higher prices in 2025.

Whale Realized Price Defines Mid-Term Support

Moreover, on-chain data from CryptoQuant compares Bitcoin’s spot price with the realized price of new whales. This level historically acts as critical support during corrections.

Between 2020 and 2021, Bitcoin repeatedly bounced near whale realized price bands, such as during the sharp mid-2021 correction. A similar dynamic appeared in 2022, when a break below this support led to extended downside momentum.

In the current cycle, whale realized price has risen to $95,000–100,000. Bitcoin’s pullback from its $120,000 peak has now brought it closer to this zone.

Analysts caution that maintaining price above this level is crucial for sustaining bullish structure. A breakdown would raise risks of a prolonged downturn.

Shifting Supply Dynamics Across Wallet Cohorts

Meanwhile, Glassnode data shows supply distribution shifting among wallet sizes during recent volatility. Wallets holding 1k–10k BTC saw their share decline from 23.3% in January to below 22% by late August.

At the same time, wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC climbed to record highs, signalling mid-size accumulation while larger whales reduced exposure.

Analyst Joao Wedson tracked buy and sell pressure using the BTCUSDT Buy/Sell Pressure Delta, which remains positive but trending lower. He remarked: “When the delta turns negative, it will be the moment to buy BTC.”

Together, these indicators show diverging behavior between cohorts, with mid-size holders stacking as larger whales lighten positions. This divergence highlights growing uncertainty over Bitcoin’s mid-term trajectory.