U.S. Long-term Unemployment Soars to Record High

August 2025 has seen U.S. long-term unemployment numbers peak at 1.93 million, marking the highest level since late 2021, according to BLS data.

Elevated long-term unemployment often signals potential economic recession, posing risks to broader markets, yet crypto remains stable amid these labor market challenges.

Long-term Unemployment Spikes as Job Losses Mount

Long-term unemployment in the U.S. reached 1.94 million in August 2025, signifying a significant increasing trend in individuals jobless for over 27 weeks. This surge is among the largest since the 2020 and 2008 recessions. The proportion of unemployed Americans jobless for 27 weeks or more has climbed to 26.3%, a substantial increase over the past 20 months since December 2023.

Job losses continue, with non-healthcare sectors experiencing significant declines. In the past four months, these sectors have reported losing 142,200 jobs, marking the steepest job loss since 2020. This rapid decline is usually indicative of a forthcoming recession, closely tracking historical patterns where such employment reductions were precursors to broader economic downturns.

“The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in August but has increased by 385,000 over the year. In August, the long-term unemployed accounted for 25.7 percent of all unemployed people.” – BLS Employment Situation Report

Market participants are cautious, given the broader implications of these numbers. Analysts have underscored potential market vulnerabilities if the labor market continues to weaken. Despite the gravity of the situation, key figures like President Joe Biden and Secretary of Labor Julie Su have not issued emergency communications, while official economic rhetoric has avoided declaring a recession.

Bitcoin Stability Amid Economic Uncertainty Highlights Crypto Market Resilience

Did you know? In only 20 months, long-term unemployment rates have shot up nearly 10%—a historical acceleration only surpassed during the 2020 COVID-19 and 2008 financial crises, underscoring potential recession risks.

Bitcoin’s recent performance demonstrates moderate volatility amid macroeconomic concerns. As of September 8, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $110,854.17, according to CoinMarketCap data. Its market cap stands at 2,207,954,815,523.34, recording a slight 24-hour price increase of 0.39%. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin’s value has seen fluctuations, starting with a 2.64% rise over the last week, despite a 4.97% dip in the past month. Trading volume reached 25,444,859,938.74 in a day, with its market dominance at 57.67%.

Coincu analysis emphasizes that while direct impacts on the crypto market remain muted, the worsening U.S. job market may influence investors’ perception of risk. Historical patterns suggest that such economic stress conditions could affect major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH through heightened volatility and changing risk appetites. Regulatory adjustments or technological initiatives within the crypto sector could become pivotal should economic indicators worsen dramatically in the coming months.