PlanC Challenges Bitcoin Peak Predictions Amid ETF Inflows

On September 6, 2025, PlanC cautioned Bitcoin investors on X, highlighting the statistical inadequacy of relying on halving cycles to anticipate a fourth-quarter peak.

PlanC’s analysis challenges prevailing market narratives, emphasizing institutional and ETF-driven liquidity changes over traditional cyclical patterns, prompting traders to re-evaluate reliance on historical data models.

Bitcoin’s ETF Influence Redefines Peak Predictions

PlanC conveyed that predicting Bitcoin’s peak using past cycles reflects a misunderstanding of statistical principles. Analysts and traders have taken note, questioning past assumptions. Peter Brandt, another prominent trader, projects a wider potential range for Bitcoin, emphasizing the fallibility of existing models.

With ETFs impacting market liquidity, previous cycle models face scrutiny. This shift signifies a move away from halving-based predictions. The ETF narrative is gaining traction as a new market driver in cryptocurrency.

“Anyone betting on a Q4 Bitcoin peak just based on past halving cycles is making a statistical error. It’s like betting all your money on the result of a fourth coin flip after seeing three tails; there’s no statistical significance with such a small sample size… Current market drivers—like sustained ETF inflows—have shifted the relevance away from the halving narrative.” — PlanC, Crypto Analyst, Bitcoin Market Commentator

Regulatory and Market Dynamics: A Shift from Historical Cycles

Did you know? Bitcoin’s current increase in ETF-driven liquidity starkly contrasts its past reliance on halving cycles for price peaks, reflecting a significant market evolution.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC) currently trades at $110,848.92, with a market cap of $2.21 trillion and a dominance of 57.90%. Over the last 90 days, the price rose by 4.93%, but recent daily trading volume fell 9.42% to $57.51 billion.

The Coincu research team emphasizes that future market dynamics could hinge on regulatory adaptability and ETF scalability. As market structures evolve, bold shifts from traditional cycles to ETF-centric movement demonstrate a recalibration, incorporating historical insights and modern financial impacts.