Ethereum Price: Will Whales Break the September Curse?

Ethereum price faces a familiar enemy this month. September has long been a weak spot for the crypto market.

For Ethereum, the record is even worse than Bitcoin’s. But 2025 may look different. Whales, are adding to their positions, exchange supply is falling, and high unrealized profit could create strong dip-buying.

Together, these signs suggest whales may be able to help Ethereum fight the September curse.

Ethereum’s September Record Is Weak

Ethereum has struggled almost every September since its launch.

Since 2016, the average return for ETH in September is about –6.4%. Losses of more than 10% have been common, with the biggest drops seen in 2017 and 2018.

Only a few Septembers were positive: 2016, 2019, 2023, and 2024. In September 2024, Ethereum gained 3.2% as ETFs and Fed policy cuts brought relief.

Still, the long history of red Septembers explains why traders call it the “September curse.”

That background makes 2025 important. Ethereum sits near $4,500, close to all-time highs. If history repeats, the pullback could be sharp.

If whales stay active, however, September may not follow the usual script.

Ethereum Whales Are Buying More Coins

The strongest signal so far comes from whale wallets. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 100,000 ETH have added about 14% more coins in the past five months.

That is a large increase, showing that big holders are buying more coins even with prices near records.

One whale recently moved $100 million worth of ETH into holdings. This supports the idea that big buyers are preparing for more upside.

This is not just a story of one wallet.

The broader trend shows many whales adding more ETH. Such moves often show long-term belief, because whales usually buy large amounts only when they expect the price to stay strong.

Exchange Balances Keep Getting Lower

At the same time, Ethereum’s exchange reserves are near cycle lows. This means fewer ETH tokens are sitting on exchanges ready to be sold.

When supply is this low, even a small wave of demand can push prices higher.

This drop in supply supports the story of whale buying.

Together, more accumulation and lower exchange balances show that whales are not just buying, but also moving coins off exchanges to hold for longer.

That lowers the chance of sudden sell-offs, while raising the chance of a supply squeeze.

And whales, if they continue to buy aggressively, are the best candidates to push the exchange reserves deeper.

High Profits Could Attract More Buyers

There is another reason whales could matter this September. Most Ethereum supply is already in profit, with ETH trading near $4,400. Normally, high profit might tempt holders to sell.

But with whales actively buying and exchange supply low, selling could be met with strong dip-buying.

This is different from earlier cycles, where profits often led to sharp drops. Today, dip-buying may create a floor under prices instead of a sharp correction.

However, despite the massive profitability, whales are still looking to get more ETH.

The September curse is still a risk. If prices fall sharply, sellers could return. But the whale-driven setup suggests there is stronger support this year compared to past Septembers.

Three Whale Metrics To Watch

For Ethereum, three simple whale-related signs may decide whether September 2025 is different:

• Accumulation: Are whale wallets still adding ETH?
• Exchange Supply: Are reserves staying low or falling more?
• Profit Levels: Is ETH still high enough in profit that buyers step in instead of sellers?

If these hold, whales may give Ethereum the strength to resist the September curse.

Ethereum’s September record is weak. Since 2016, most years have brought losses. But this September looks different.

Whales are buying more ETH, exchange balances are thin, and dip-buying is likely stronger thanks to high profit levels.

The crypto market often follows Ethereum’s lead. If Ethereum whales help the price stay strong, it could mean the September curse is finally broken; not just for Ethereum, but for the wider market.