HBAR Price Analysis: Hedera Tests $0.21 Support as September Rally Potential Builds

Quick Take

• HBAR currently trading at $0.22 (-2.40% in 24h) • Hedera’s RSI at 39.77 suggests oversold conditions may be approaching • Upcoming Sibos 2025 event and SWIFT integration rumors fuel September rally expectations

What’s Driving Hedera Price Today?

The HBAR price faced selling pressure this week, declining 4% to current levels around $0.218-$0.22 amid broader market volatility. This recent pullback aligns with the current 24-hour decline of 2.40%, keeping Hedera within a tight trading range between $0.21 and $0.22.

Despite the immediate bearish price action, market analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Hedera’s September prospects. The primary catalyst driving this sentiment centers around the upcoming Sibos 2025 conference and persistent rumors regarding potential SWIFT integration. These developments could serve as significant catalysts for the anticipated rally toward $0.40 that several analysts have projected for September 2025.

The current market dynamics reflect a temporary consolidation phase rather than a fundamental shift in Hedera’s longer-term trajectory, with institutional events and partnership speculation providing underlying support for bullish sentiment.

HBAR Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals Point to Potential Reversal

Hedera technical analysis reveals a complex picture with both bearish momentum and oversold conditions developing simultaneously. The HBAR RSI currently sits at 39.77, positioning Hedera in the neutral zone but approaching oversold territory, which historically has provided buying opportunities for the token.

The moving average structure presents a mixed outlook for the HBAR price. While Hedera trades below its 20-day SMA ($0.24) and 50-day SMA ($0.25), indicating short-term weakness, the token maintains its position above the critical 200-day SMA at $0.20. This configuration suggests that while near-term momentum favors sellers, the longer-term bullish trend remains intact.

Hedera’s MACD indicator confirms the current bearish momentum with a reading of -0.0077 and a negative histogram of -0.0027. However, the relatively shallow negative readings suggest that selling pressure may be losing steam. The Stochastic oscillator shows HBAR in deeply oversold territory with %K at 10.30, often signaling an impending bounce.

Within the Bollinger Bands framework, HBAR trades near the lower band at $0.21, with the %B position at 0.1254 indicating the token is approaching significant support levels. This positioning often precedes short-term reversals, particularly when combined with oversold momentum indicators.

Hedera Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance

Critical Hedera support levels emerge at the current $0.21 zone, which aligns with both the Bollinger Band lower boundary and the strong support level identified in the technical analysis. A break below this level could expose HBAR to further downside, potentially testing the psychological $0.20 level that coincides with the 200-day moving average.

On the upside, HBAR resistance presents itself at multiple levels. The immediate resistance sits at $0.26, corresponding to the Bollinger Band upper boundary. This level represents the first hurdle for any potential recovery in the HBAR price. Beyond this, the strong resistance at $0.30 becomes the key target for bullish scenarios, representing a 36% upside from current levels.

The pivot point at $0.22 serves as the immediate battleground between bulls and bears. Sustained trading above this level would suggest that Hedera has found its footing, while a decisive break below could trigger additional selling pressure toward the lower support zones.

For HBAR/USDT traders, these levels provide clear reference points for both risk management and profit-taking strategies, with the $0.21-$0.26 range likely to contain most near-term price action.

Should You Buy HBAR Now? Risk-Reward Analysis

Based on Binance spot market data, the current risk-reward profile for HBAR presents different opportunities depending on trading timeframes and risk tolerance. For conservative investors, the proximity to strong support at $0.21 offers a favorable entry point with clearly defined risk parameters.

Short-term traders might consider waiting for confirmation of support holding or signs of momentum reversal through the HBAR RSI moving back above 40 and MACD showing positive divergence. The tight trading range suggests that a breakout in either direction could generate significant momentum.

For those believing in the September rally narrative driven by Sibos 2025 and potential SWIFT integration, current levels present an attractive accumulation zone. The risk-reward ratio favors buyers with stops below $0.20 and targets toward the $0.30-$0.40 range that analysts have projected.

However, traders should remain aware that a break below the critical $0.21 support could trigger further selling, potentially targeting the $0.18-$0.19 zone. This downside risk must be weighed against the upside potential from upcoming catalysts.

Conclusion

The HBAR price currently navigates a critical juncture at $0.22, with technical indicators suggesting oversold conditions may be developing despite recent bearish momentum. The combination of approaching oversold RSI levels, proximity to strong support, and upcoming catalysts like Sibos 2025 creates a potentially favorable setup for contrarian traders. However, confirmation of support holding and momentum reversal remains essential before establishing significant long positions. The next 24-48 hours will likely determine whether Hedera can stabilize above $0.21 and begin its anticipated September recovery toward the $0.40 target that analysts have projected.

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