Ethereum Price Risks Breakdown Below $4,300, But Bulls Still Have Hope

Key Insights:

• Ethereum price was trading at $4,388, with the $4,300–$4,320 zone now the key breakdown level.
• Fundamentals remain strong, with record activity and lower gas fees, even as short-term momentum weakens.
• Whales rotated over $430 Million into ETH, suggesting a long-term backstop if the price clears $4,530 toward $5,000.

The Ethereum price has entered September meekly after closing August with a 25% monthly gain. At press time, ETH was trading at around $4,388, down about 1.4% in the past 24 hours.

This pullback has enhanced the value of the $4,300–$4,320 zone, which now acts as the key breakdown level. Traders see this band as the floor that could decide whether Ethereum’s September will stay steady or slide further.

$4,300 Breakdown Zone Could Determine the Path

For traders, support and resistance levels work like floors and ceilings. The most important floor now sits between $4,300 and $4,320.

If ETH loses this zone on a daily close, the next level of support comes in near $4,156, followed by $4,119. A deeper slide toward $4,000 cannot be ruled out if selling pressure accelerates.

Meanwhile, resistance is placed higher. ETH needs to reclaim $4,530 to unlock the next target at $4,800 and eventually $5,000. Between $4,480 and $4,592, traders hold over 1.9 million ETH. This creates one of the strongest supply zones in the near term. This also explains why bulls have struggled to push higher;  many holders may be selling into strength.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks capital inflows, has also slipped below zero.

That means big money is not entering ETH right now, reinforcing the importance of the $4,300 zone. Until inflows get back to normal, Ethereum’s price is likely to remain range-bound, at least for the first few days in September.

Fundamentals Show Strength, Despite Volatility

Despite the Ethereum price heading lower, the blockchain itself remains strong.

Active addresses and transactions have recently reached record highs. This shows that usage continues to climb.

At the same time, gas fees are low, something the Ethereum network isn’t known for. This means Ethereum is handling user demand better than ever.

It is worth mentioning that Ethereum has typically struggled in September, with only mild gains in 2023 (+1.49%) and 2024 (+3.20%) following years of red months.

This year, after a strong August, the pattern of a slower September may be repeating, at least in the short term.

Whale Buying Remains Strong

Large holders, often called whales, continue to accumulate ETH even during the dip.

On-chain data shows whales rotated over $430 Million into Ethereum recently. This rotation comes while retail flows remain weak, highlighting the difference between long-term accumulation and short-term selling. What’s interesting is that BTC to ETH rotation continues, weakening the former.

This matters because whales tend to act early, adding exposure when prices look risky to smaller traders.

Analysts point to Bitcoin’s 2020 cycle as an example, when whale buying near resistance paved the way for a massive rally once the market broke out. If the ETH price manages to clear $4,530, the $5,000 target could come into play faster than expected.