Solana’s Best Month Ahead? Historic Data Points to Double

Key Insights:

• Solana has averaged +17% in September since 2021, marking its most consistent bullish month.
• Price trades below 5, 10, and 20-hour moving averages, signaling bearish short-term market structure.
• Defending $200 support while breaking $215 resistance could trigger another bullish move this September.

Solana (SOL) is entering September with both historical seasonality and on-chain data suggesting potential strength. At the same time, short-term technical indicators remain cautious, leaving traders focused on whether the token can maintain key support levels.

September’s Track Record for Solana

Data from CryptoRank shows that September has consistently been one of Solana’s strongest months since 2021. That year, the token surged +29%, followed by +8% in 2022, and +12.5% in 2023. This three-year streak gives Solana an average September gain of roughly +17%, making it a standout period for the asset.

CryptosRus noted,

 “Momentum feels tilted toward the bulls with 90% of supply sitting in profit heading into the month.”

Moreover, on-chain metrics that show most holders remain in profit, potentially providing confidence for further accumulation.

The seasonality chart also reveals Solana’s volatility across other months, with strong October and November rallies in some years offset by heavy December losses. Despite this, September has delivered consistent green candles for three consecutive years.

Bearish Market Structure in the Short Term

While long-term seasonality suggests strength, shorter timeframes are more cautious. The 1-hour chart shows Solana trading around $199.84, just above key support at $200. Price action has remained below the 5-hour, 10-hour, and 20-hour moving averages, pointing to near-term bearish pressure.

The RSI is trending below 50, showing weak buying interest, while the MACD is in bearish territory with a negative histogram. These indicators suggest momentum currently favors sellers, and a breakdown below $200 could expose Solana to deeper losses.

Resistance is visible around $215, where price failed to sustain previous rebounds. A move back above this level would be needed to restore short-term bullish momentum.

Market Position and Outlook

The price of Solana (SOL) is $198.80 today, with a 24-hour trading volume of $5.95 billion. The token has fallen -2% in the last 24 hours and -3% over the past 7 days.

The near-term market structure remains fragile, but historical September performance paired with profitability metrics keeps optimism in play. Whether Solana can repeat its seasonal gains may depend on its ability to defend the $200 support and overcome $215 resistance in the coming sessions.