Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Conflicting Data Sparks Debate

Bitcoin cycle lengthens as institutions and ETFs foster steadier long-term growth
Spot market conviction fades, but $105K–$107K support underpins Bitcoin resilience
Historical retest patterns suggest potential vertical breakout toward $130,000 levels

The Bitcoin market is sending a complex mix of signals, leaving traders on edge as a healthy long-term cycle clashes with signs of immediate spot market weakness.

While on-chain data suggests the bull market is simply extending, spot buyer conviction is fading. The deciding factor now hinges on a historical chart pattern currently retesting a critical support level.

Why Does This Bull Market Feel Slower?

According to analysis from CryptoQuant, the current Bitcoin cycle is lengthening. Unlike the rapid surges of the past, this phase has a more gradual slope, driven by the influence of institutional adoption, spot ETFs, and even sovereign-level interest.

Besides, whenever capital rotates toward altcoins, Bitcoin’s upward trajectory briefly pauses, a pattern that has repeated in recent months.

Crypto Market Cycle Slows, Uptrend Expected in Fall 2025
“Looking at the percentage of Bitcoin held for over a year (based on realized market cap), past cycles (Phase 1 and 2) show that the market surged sharply and reached its peak.
However, in the current phase (3), the slope… pic.twitter.com/jTL139wa8c
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 29, 2025

What Are the Short-Term Warning Signs?

Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s spot market bias has reset. In April, buyer dominance drove strong rallies, but today the Cumulative Volume Delta across major exchanges has turned neutral. This shift reveals fading conviction among spot buyers near $111,000.

Related: Bitcoin Price Stuck at $113K as Traders Brace for End-Of-Month Options Expiry

Hence, without fresh inflows, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to short-term weakness. Still, key support between $105,000 and $107,000 provides a strong foundation. Resistance remains firm at $115,000 to $118,000. Sustained accumulation above $110,000 is viewed as critical for momentum to rebuild.

Glassnode: Spot market bias has reset. Bitcoin’s CVD across major venues has reverted to neutral, contrasting with strong April buyer dominance. This suggests waning conviction among spot participants near $111k. pic.twitter.com/xXxyINoOwu
— NekoZ (@NekozTek) August 29, 2025

What Is the Bullish Pattern Traders Are Watching?

Merlijn The Trader has emphasized Bitcoin’s tendency to follow a repeated pattern throughout this bull cycle: rejection, breakout, retest, and sharp continuation. The $110,000 level is now being retested.

If it holds, the historical setup implies that the next move could be vertical, targeting levels above $130,000. Moreover, the consistency of this behavior through past cycles reinforces confidence among traders who buy during retests.

Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bulls Defend $110K but ETF Outflows Keep Pressure Ahead of Q4

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Source: https://coinedition.com/why-this-bitcoin-bull-run-feels-different-than-the-last-ones/