PCE inflation report July 2025:

Inflation edged higher in July, according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, indicating that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are weaning their way through the U.S. economy.

The personal consumption expenditures price index showed that core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, ran at a 2.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to a Commerce Department report Friday. That was up 0.1 percentage point from the June level but in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast.

On a monthly basis, the core PCE index increased 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The all-items index showed the annual rate at 2.6% and the monthly gain at 0.2%, also hitting the consensus outlook.

The Fed uses the PCE price index as its primary forecasting tool. Though it watches both numbers, policymakers consider core inflation to be a better indicator of longer-term trends as it excludes the volatile gas and groceries figures.

Central bankers target inflation at 2%, so Friday’s report shows the economy still a distance from where the Fed feels comfortable.

Nevertheless, markets expect the Fed to resume lowering its benchmark interest rate when policymakers convene next month. Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his support for a cut in a speech Thursday, saying he would entertain a larger move if labor market data continue weakening.

Along with the inflation moves, consumer spending increased 0.5% on the month, in line with forecasts and indicative of strength despite the higher prices. Personal income accelerated 0.4%, rounding out a report that saw all figures hit the consensus outlook.

Stock market futures remained negative after the release while Treasury yields held gains.

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