What NBA Teams Can Learn From The Patrick Williams Contract

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – OCTOBER 04: Patrick Williams #44 of the Chicago Bulls looks on against the New Orleans Pelicans during the second half of a preseason game at the United Center on October 04, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois.NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

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Last offseason, the Chicago Bulls signed Patrick Williams to five-year contract worth $90 million.

At the time, it was primarily viewed as a decent investment – albeit it a slight gamble – as the forward would be entering his fifth season, and shots had opened up within Chicago’s offense due to the departure of DeMar DeRozan.

As it turned out, the slight gamble turned into a catastrophe. Williams yet again underperformed, and the questions were accurately raised about who the Bulls were even negotiating against for his services.

As the 6’8 forward enters his sixth NBA season, expectations are at an all-time low.

Consistently inconsistent

The 24-year-old’s production, over the first five years of his career, has been almost remarkably similar.

His scoring average has swayed between 9.0 and 10.2 points per game, and his rebounding between 3.8 and 4.6 per contest.

Despite having been handed multiple opportunities to break that pattern, which includes 211 starts and almost 7,500 minutes, Williams seem no closer to figuring it out than he did as a 19-year-old rookie.

The expectations of being the fourth overall pick never materialized, and while one should never factor in draft slot at this stage of a player’s career, Bulls fans will forever be reminded of the players the organization left on the board (such as Tyrese Haliburton, Deni Avdija, Desmond Bane, and Immanuel Quickley) to target Williams.

As such, it’s time to make a change. A trade would benefit both Williams and the Bulls in terms of closing this chapter for good, but Chicago might have painted themselves into a corner with the aforementioned contract.

Too many years left

While Williams’ contract is flat, meaning he earns exactly $18 million per year, the Bulls gave him a player option in the fifth year, meaning he’s got the power to opt in. In many ways, this means he’s got four years left on his deal, when his production level is worth closer to half that, even when taking into account future salary cap increases.

So, what’s the next step?

The Bulls could try to attach an asset to his contract and offer him to a team with cap space, such as the Brooklyn Nets, in an attempt to move on. That’d be costly, and for a contract that averages $18 million a year, it’s not because the money itself is of that egregious an amount.

In fact, for Chicago’s side, it’s probably difficult to justify relinquishing future draft compensation to get off a deal that takes up just 11.6% of the cap.

In many ways, the Bulls are finding themselves in the perfect storm with Williams.

The annual salary number isn’t as significant as it’s worth forking over assets to get rid of it, but the years make the presence of Williams both frustrating for the fan base, and for the organization, if he isn’t going to take a leap.

Outside teams could see upside in the forward, who can play both small forward and power forward, defend at a solid level, and hit the occasional three-pointer.

But for them, the contractual length is a tough sell given how Williams’ career has been underwhelming, and no team would be likely to relinquish anything of value to roll the dice on him.

The take-away

All of this leads to a potential learning opportunity.

NBA teams should be in no rush to pay players who have yet to demonstrate their value, in particular if they’ve had four years and 175 starts worth of chances.

It might sound tough, but given the overwhelming importance of having a streamlined cap sheet in today’s league, it makes more sense than ever before to squeeze players who remain unestablished or inconsistent.

Williams should stand as a major example, not just for the Bulls but league-wide, of how not to approach players who have disappointed during their rookie contracts.

If a player has spent four seasons consistently failing to live up to expectations, 29 outside teams will also be painfully aware of it.

In short, let one of them make the mistake instead of proactively making it yourself.

If the player pops when he arrives elsewhere, applaud the situation, and recognize he still could have struggled had he stuck around, as fit, coaches, situation, emotions, and maturity all factor into player development.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.