The Cubs ‘June Swoon’ Arrives In August, Wild Card in Question?

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs reacts after being tagged out attempting to steal second base against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the 9th inning at Wrigley Field on August 15, 2025. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

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If the Chicago Cubs were a tradable security on the NASDAQ, the team’s stock would be more volatile than that of your typical gold/silver ETF or a fly-by-night tech startup.

Last night, the Cubs took the second of two games right on the chin from the San Francisco Giants, a third-place team under .500 in the National League West. That comes after their impressive three-game sweep of the lowly Los Angeles Angels, against whom the Cubs scored 19 runs in three games.

And just like that, you have the Cubs’ entire August —perhaps their entire 2025 season— summed up by their performance over the last week.

The Cubs finally got to 70 wins in mid-August, but up until then, it had been a slog. The Cubs beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-3 at Wrigley Field on August 17, after splitting the previous two games. Prior to the Pittsburgh series, the Cubs dropped two of three games in Toronto against the AL East-leading Blue Jays, plus two of three against their own division rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, who themselves are nowhere near postseason contention.

But the Cubs kicked off August by losing two of three versus the Cincinnati Reds, another NL Central division rival, and followed it up by eeking out two necessary but predictable wins versus the AL East’s last-place Baltimore Orioles.

Normally, during the Cubs’ better years, the month of August is the make-or-break time that has locked in Chicago’s north side team into a postseason run. Or by August, things have gone completely in the other direction, and 1060 W. Addison suddenly becomes the place where locals soak up the summer’s last 80-degree days or find a reason to skip out of the office.

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After all, some of our ball club’s biggest detractors say that the word Cubs stands for “Completely Useless By September.”

However, all of this tradition (of losing games at the wrong time) is usually preceded by another phenomenon that Cubs’ fans have come to expect—or one that Cards and Brewers fans have come to anticipate—that kicks in long before the ivy at Wrigley Field starts to turn orange.

It’s what Cubs fans call the “June Swoon” — the period before the All-Star Break in which the Cubs jeopardize early-season momentum and counter their wins with a streak of losses in the third month of the MLB season.

So, what’s causing the Cubs to play so-so baseball after this year’s All-Star Break? Why is this year’s June Swoon arriving two months past schedule? Especially after spending the entire month of June in first place?

Well, this time, it’s not because of a poorly constructed pitching staff or a lack of talented players who can hit for extra bases. Certainly, we Cubs fans could blame injuries, as there have been a few.

Currently, starting pitcher RHP Jameson Taillon is on the IL with a left groin strain, but has pitched so far this month, possibly carrying an injury that has hampered his recent production. In the same boat is RHP Michael Soroka, who was also just put on the IL. But one would think that their new places on the IL would affect future games in September. Yet, both have pitched in their last seven games with .450-plus ERAs.

You could chalk it up to typical midseason blues for a team that boasts a lot of reliable talent, but not necessarily future Hall of Fame-caliber talent. Sure, it’s tired arms and bullpen burnout. All that.

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Looking closer, some of the team’s stars are indeed suffering from cold bats. All-Star outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has batted barely above .200 for the last 30 days, while two-time All-Star and sometime MVP candidate Dansby Swanson has batted .221 in the same time span. Neither has an on-base percentage (OBP) approaching .300 in the last 30 days.

But it’s a very hard sell to say that the Cubs’ woes have been caused by matchups with tough teams, considering that August has been made up of contests with the Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals, all of whom have slumped to lower positions in the NL Central this summer.

Past June Swoons have been notable ones

Probably the Cubs’ worst June in the last decade came in 2017, just months after their first World Series in over a hundred years. During that 2017 stretch, the Cubs went 13–16 in June, looking hungover from their 2016 triumph.

But that year, it was a combination of things. The team’s rotation was a little shaky, with starters Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and John Lackey, who was then near the end of his career, all seeing their ERAs inflate that month, thanks to the trio giving up easy runs.

At the same time, the Cubs’ offense sputtered too, with 2016 National League MVP Kris Bryant hitting just .250 in June 2017. The Cubs entered the month at 25–27 and left June still under .500, 41–42 by the All-Star break. The Cubs would go on to the postseason and even return to the NLCS, but would be beaten down by the high-flying L.A. Dodgers, who would take that series five games, en route to the 2017 World Series.

But it wasn’t just the season after the World Series.

The year 2019 wasn’t much better, as the Cubs, then still under manager Joe Maddon, stumbled to a 14–15 record in June after starting the month in first place. That time around, it was bullpen woes and road struggles during a season in which the Cubs had a two-month stint without winning a road series.

And in 2023, the Cubs started another mini-June Swoon, starting the month 2-8, before rebounding with an 11–2 run to finish the month 14–11. Yet that season, the Cubs’ overall fate was sealed thanks to a poor 10-18 May and a 12-17 run in the last month of the season.

Normally, August is a make-or-break month for every team in Major League Baseball, with hopes of a postseason or even the glimpse of a World Series.

It’s notable that in 2016, the Cubs had a commanding 22-6 run in August, and went 19-9 the year before, making 2015 the Cubs’ first appearance in the NLCS since 2003.

Right now, with a 76-57 record, the Cubs stand in first position in the National League Wild Card race. And with upcoming series against the Nationals, the Pirates, and the Rockies —all last-place teams— Craig Counsell’s men should be able to pick up some wins.

But the Cubs will really have to dial in and bring their best bats and arms to secure a post-season spot, their new “August Swoon” notwithstanding.

Read Frye’s recent interviews with Urban Meyer and Shaq.

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